Bitcoin Daily Update (day 335)
已更新
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Consensio: L EMA < P < M EMA < S EMA
Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | A&E having trouble confirming
Horizontals: S: $3,729 | R: $3,922
Trendline: $4,500
Parabolic SAR: $3,705
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.66% spread
Funding Rates: Shorts pay long 0.0064%
BTCUSDSHORTS: Testing 17,200 support on a red 8
TD’ Sequential: Price flip after G7
Ichimoku Cloud: Found support above Cloud, still with bullish kumo twist
Relative Strength Index: Finding support above 50
Average Directional Index: Daily still bullish, weekly still converging
Price Action: 24h: -8.7% | 2w: +3.4% | 1m: +6.6%
Bollinger Bands: Support above daily MA
Stochastic Oscillator: Sell signal was one of the few things that called this selloff. Weekly is crossing 20, confirming buy signal.
Summary: What an interesting day today was! I was watching closely for a close above the 200 W EMA and that did not happen. It has held as resistance since November 2018 and continues to hold strong.
Even though we got rejected hard I am still leaning bullish, for a number of reasons. We did get a bearish engulfing candle on the daily, which leads to bearish reversal 79% of the time according to Thomas Bulkowski, my most important indicators are telling me to remain bullish.
The 50 EMA as turning up and acted as perfect support on this sell off. The Bollinger Band MA was in confluence and didn’t even quite get tested. The Ichimoku Cloud is fully bullish with the Tenkan-Sen above the Kijun-Sen, the price above the cloud and a bullish kumo twist.
The daily Parabolic SAR remains in tact. The 4 & 9 W EMA’s are crossing for a bullish crossover for the first time in 7 months and most importantly the market has reentered Contango while price is still above the 2 week high.
What I am watching for:
4 & 9 D EMA’s are threatening to make a bearish crossover and that will be something I am paying very close attention to. If the price cannot close back above those EMA’s in the next day or two then I will adjusting my bullish disposition accordingly. That is in confluence with a 50% retracement of today’s marubozu / bearish engulfing candle. If that is going to lead to a bearish reversal then resistance should hold strong below the 50% retracement at $3,922.
50% retracements are very reliable stop losses that I use regularly and if we exceed that area then it would indicate to me this was just a shakeout before breaking above $4,200. If we do break above the 50% retracement then I will be looking to re enter longs.
On the other hand if we take out today’s low, which would violate the parabolic SAR and likely lead to a bearish crossover of the 4 & 9 EMA’s then I will be looking for longs. The only thing that would stop me is backwardation. If that still persists then I will sit on my hands and wait for further confirmation.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: L EMA < P < M EMA < S EMA
Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | A&E having trouble confirming
Horizontals: S: $3,729 | R: $3,922
Trendline: $4,500
Parabolic SAR: $3,705
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.66% spread
Funding Rates: Shorts pay long 0.0064%
BTCUSDSHORTS: Testing 17,200 support on a red 8
TD’ Sequential: Price flip after G7
Ichimoku Cloud: Found support above Cloud, still with bullish kumo twist
Relative Strength Index: Finding support above 50
Average Directional Index: Daily still bullish, weekly still converging
Price Action: 24h: -8.7% | 2w: +3.4% | 1m: +6.6%
Bollinger Bands: Support above daily MA
Stochastic Oscillator: Sell signal was one of the few things that called this selloff. Weekly is crossing 20, confirming buy signal.
Summary: What an interesting day today was! I was watching closely for a close above the 200 W EMA and that did not happen. It has held as resistance since November 2018 and continues to hold strong.
Even though we got rejected hard I am still leaning bullish, for a number of reasons. We did get a bearish engulfing candle on the daily, which leads to bearish reversal 79% of the time according to Thomas Bulkowski, my most important indicators are telling me to remain bullish.
The 50 EMA as turning up and acted as perfect support on this sell off. The Bollinger Band MA was in confluence and didn’t even quite get tested. The Ichimoku Cloud is fully bullish with the Tenkan-Sen above the Kijun-Sen, the price above the cloud and a bullish kumo twist.
The daily Parabolic SAR remains in tact. The 4 & 9 W EMA’s are crossing for a bullish crossover for the first time in 7 months and most importantly the market has reentered Contango while price is still above the 2 week high.
What I am watching for:
4 & 9 D EMA’s are threatening to make a bearish crossover and that will be something I am paying very close attention to. If the price cannot close back above those EMA’s in the next day or two then I will adjusting my bullish disposition accordingly. That is in confluence with a 50% retracement of today’s marubozu / bearish engulfing candle. If that is going to lead to a bearish reversal then resistance should hold strong below the 50% retracement at $3,922.
50% retracements are very reliable stop losses that I use regularly and if we exceed that area then it would indicate to me this was just a shakeout before breaking above $4,200. If we do break above the 50% retracement then I will be looking to re enter longs.
On the other hand if we take out today’s low, which would violate the parabolic SAR and likely lead to a bearish crossover of the 4 & 9 EMA’s then I will be looking for longs. The only thing that would stop me is backwardation. If that still persists then I will sit on my hands and wait for further confirmation.
註釋
Was just notified that it says I am looking for longs if today's low and the parabolic SAR are taken out, that is a typo and should say shorts.註釋
As I start to dedicate more time to writing the Hyperwave book I will have less time to post on Trading View. On days like today, when very little has changed from the previous post, I will not be making a new update. Still watching to see if price can close above $3,922 or close below the 50 D EMA. If the former happens I will be looking for longs and if the latter happens instead then I will be looking for shorts. Since backwardation is still present I am leaning bullish.
Cheers!
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