BTC: Visual comparison, 2017 and now

2021年3月8日

Obviously, this is not technically robust. Even to make the visual comparison, the two are on different timescales. It just occurred to me how similar, at a basic level, the two charts are.

On the left, the opening days of the 2017 retracement. On the right, where we are now.

2017 took a strong turn to the downside after touching the 0.786 Fibonacci. My tentative projection is that BTC will do the same now. It will touch the 0.786, at $54k, and turn down to $37k, in an A-B-C movement.

You can find via my profile an elaboration, using Fibonacci level analysis, of why this may occur now, tied to the January retracement and the entire movement dating back to the crossing of the previous ATH late last year. I see this also as an unfolding retracement within the Crypto Total Market Cap, to retest the $1T mark.

2021年3月8日

註釋

For anyone who opens the chart and is curious, I'm setting the 2017 Fibonacci at bottoming around 02 February 2018, and discounting the sharp drop 04-06 February, which I think was a flash correlation between the BTC chart and the closing of the Dow 665 points down on Friday, 02 February — the worst week for markets in two years.

2021年3月8日

註釋

I just want to make absolutely clear, in case it wasn't clear, that I'm not suggesting the end of the BTC bull run. The comparison is only to show the similarity between now and 2017 as BTC tries to reach the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the upside bounce. From there, in my view (elaborated on other charts), BTC will bottom at $37k before seeing an epic upswing to $73k, probably within March, and will continue on to at least $100k, and perhaps $200k this bull run. The 2017 comparison is not suggesting the bull run is ending. We're probably only a third of the way in for BTC.

2021年3月10日

註釋

10 Mar 2021 08:47:57: As of time of writing, this chart comparison has all but proven invalid. I've been detailing the critical point of $55k here:

A key signal of an upside turn was the crossing on the daily chart of the MACD line over the Signal line on the MACD indicator. At this point, I'm ready to call the macro Fibonacci analysis on which my general outlook was based as invalid. I still want to see a close above $55k on the 4-hourly chart. But I think this is imminent. There are no sell walls forming at $55k on the heat map, and no alerts of exceptional BTC inflows to exchanges. So I see $58k being retested soon, and a continuance to the upside from there.