$BTC currently caught between upward channel vs major resistance line. If it manages to break above 7250 we will see upward continuation in the channel until we hit the VPVR around 8000 which would be a good short entry. If BTC goes under 6700 coinciding with the 382 fibonacci level then we can expect a return to 6000 which then leads to a stronger breakout of the major resistance trendline. I believe both scenarios lead to a fair market value around 7000 at the halving.
Below we see the $SPY correlation which is in a clear ascending wedge and very close to resistance VPVR. My expectation is that it will be rejected and go back down to the 382 fibonacci level. The higher SPX goes, the more scared investors become to protect profits they made by buying the dip so even minor events will lead to a drop. This is why sharp movements up after a drop rarely last. A $SPY drop will lead to the BTC bearish scenario above.
Below we see the $SPY correlation which is in a clear ascending wedge and very close to resistance VPVR. My expectation is that it will be rejected and go back down to the 382 fibonacci level. The higher SPX goes, the more scared investors become to protect profits they made by buying the dip so even minor events will lead to a drop. This is why sharp movements up after a drop rarely last. A $SPY drop will lead to the BTC bearish scenario above.
評論:
A point of perspective, what bull would buy at 7000 knowing that bears will likely take over at 8000? Only scalpers and bull trap manipulators. Personally I see the halving as a bearish event due to it lowering the mining profitability. Once that is behind us we will see where the real demand levels are now that the traditional log chart is broken.
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