Bitcoin Closing in Decision Point, Break and Bounce from Support

已更新

The 6300 support has been tested a few hours ago, it broke because of a quick drop (probably piled up stop levels) and it went up just as fast again. The bulls and bears have the control in their own hands now. A daily close below 6300 creates a small sell signal and a close below the low we just made (6260ish) will be a bigger sell signal. The bulls have a possible Ace in their sleeves now, that is if they manage to push it above the 6400/6430 the coming 2.5 hours (before the daily close). If they can do that, it will create a (big) buy signal.

As we can see on the right (yellow circles) it seems that blue trend line is (still) valid because we just had another bounce up from this trend line. I have been mentioning the 6340 level for a couple of hours now since we made that drop, that the bulls need to get above that level to bring momentum more towards the neutral level again. The pas 2/3 hours the bulls have tried but buying power is falling short so far. In the bullish version we can expect a small drop to around 6300 but the bulls need to step up and push it higher again. If they can do that, this green wedge is probably valid. The only reason i have drawn the wedge, is because of the bounce we just made from that 6270ish level. Normally i don't like these kind of wedges but i think this one is worth mentioning.

As if the confusion was not big enough already, Tether has been dropping again today. It's almost starting to look like a new downtrend on Tether is about to happen. Can't say if Tether holders will jump into Bitcoin' again as we did a month ago. I think people are better prepared this time so i don't expect something big as last time. Dropping Tether price might have some bullish effect but i think the negativity will get the upper hand if that happens. So we really need to keep an eye on Tether again, this could really destroy everything again.

The higher low formation as we can see on the left is still intact, but their is danger now obviously. Since we just made a first test already of that support zone. Something we should not forget, we have been moving sideways for months now and my biggest fear for more than a month now is that we keep moving sideways for a very long time. Knowing this, it could mean that even if we break important support levels like the 6200 and 6100, buyers will step in once again and create a bear trap. Just like we had a small bull trap a few days ago.

The low volume in Bitcoin' is still in favor of the bears and is something we should not ignore! Volume is everything since volume shows the buying and selling volume. So unless there is a lot of buying going outside of the exchanges (OTC' trading) we have to assume there is not enough interest from bulls at these 6K prices and potential buyers are waiting for much lower prices to get in. I made an attempt a month or so ago to try and figure it out together, if we could find out if there was accumulation going on outside of the exchanges. Where i made the assumption that maybe the Bitcoin' price was being pushed down each time there was an attempt to break up. Keeping the price around the 6400 levels to keep the accumulation going. Some of my members showed me that there has been accumulation going on on certain big wallets. But the thing is, it could be a deception. Meaning that someone is just moving Bitcoins' from one wallet to another. But i have been trying to ignore these things because it can cloud my judgement and objectivity. Also because none of the "facts" are certain.

At the moment i am in favor of a bullish version, but as soon as the 6270ish breaks i will switch to neutral.

So levels to watch are: 6340, 6420,6500 and on the downside the 6270,6200,6100

Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)

Previous analysis:

Bitcoin, Breakout and Retest of Support levels.

註釋

There was a discussion going on in my previous analysis about the Bitcoin futures (Bitmex) and i wanted to show you what i talked about in the beginning of 2018. To show the bigger picture (outside of TA and FA) of the frustrating price action that has been going on in this market.

The original post:

Bitmex, Bitcoin future trading, volume increased enormously !!

Update on the same subject:

What our Bitcoin market has become, a futures market

註釋

Open Interest (OI) on Bitmex has increased to 860 mil now. One of the highest levels for a while now. Indicating a big move could happen soon. Can be both ways because this number does not tell us which direction is most likely.

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Still slowly dropping with low volume, so no buyers yet. The first green zone needs to hold, if not, the bullish version is probably over for now. Above 6340ish the bullish version becomes more likely.

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I wish i could just blindly trust these people with when they say these things, i just don't. Rather see the facts/numbers myself. Doesn't mean it's not true, i just have difficulty trusting these people since they always have their own agenda.

ccn.com/binance-ceo-market-still-in-good-position-real-crypto-volume-2x-larger-than-reported-stats/

註釋

There it is, the break of 6340 and we got ourselves a small squeeze up. We are 10 minutes away from the daily close, if we can see a close above the 6400/20, we will get a big buy signal!

註釋

Wedge alert :), we have a breakout, now we need some follow through

註釋

Before getting too exited, goal was a break of 6340, that has been reached. Now it's still okay if we drop some again. Because below the 6340 the bears would be still be in favor by far. So as mentioned earlier, now we are back in the neutral zone (when ignoring the bullish wedge).

註釋

6400/6420 is still giving a lot of resistance. Should stay above the 6350ish now for another attempt.

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One of my last updates in my previous analysis. On the right we can see what the bulls need to show the coming days. Some bounces up and down, defending the 6300.
2 messages here, one is showing off :) but the second is:
Patience AND planning ahead to avoid emotional decisions. Still not there yet of course, things could still fail, but that's not the point here.

註釋

The longer this takes, the bigger the chance we will retest the 6320/30 again. Meaning there will be a chance this rally will fail if we break another support. So we are not out of the clear yet

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Not liking this now. Not over yet, but the fact that they stopped it at 6400/6420 AND that they stopped it minutes before the daily close. Shows there is so much control at the moment, don't think it's a coincidence, because they have controlled these daily closes so many times this year.

If 6350ish breaks, we are still in the safe zone of the bullish wedge, but i will be more skeptical. Only above the 6420 i will be more comfortable.

註釋

There is still room for the wedge to work out, but the fact that we broke only slightly above that red resistance and we are dropping below it again, is a bad sign. We should have moved towards the 6450/30 and stayed above the 6380/6400. That would have been the perfect scenario. I don't have much confidence in a complete pullback.

So just see it as an alert to be aware instead of lightning your siggar and laying back already :)

註釋

So far it is still moving stable above the 6360 creating a bull flag. Still want to see that break of the 6400/6420 level. Now when/if this happens, want to see volume increase as well. No more of these lame low volume breakouts like we had at the 6500 a week ago.

On the right we can see Tether, things are getting even worse again there. Moved up quickly again as well, but want to see it getting more stable though. Otherwise it could jeopardize everything.

註釋

So we eventually dropped even more as suspected. I was afraid of this might happen, ever since the moment the stopped it getting above the 6420/6400 and those 5/6 mil sells on Bitmex kept appearing at the high when the squeeze was ending. Seems that was a sign.
Alts are also not that great at the moment, not seeing any real confidence on that side. Still above important levels though, but we really need to get above that 6400/6420 today, otherwise it will all have been a fake bull move after a fake bear move.

註釋

I could see something really strange going on a few minutes ago, the mark price exchanges for Bitmex, (bitstamp,coinbase,kraken) they all just got pushed down to 6330, but surprisingly Bitmex did not even move. It did not drop with the rest. Maybe people will stop saying that it's JUST a future that is JUST following the exchanges ;).
Anyway, i have never seen that, at least don't remember it. That Bitmex does NOT drop when others do. It would fit the bullishness Bitmex i mentioned a week or 2 a ago. That gave the market a lot of strength to move up.

More importantly, the wedge is still in play as we can see here, had a full pullback, something i rather not had seen but it has happened. Now we have to move upwards again the coming hours to prevent this from becoming a bull trap.

If we go up we really need to see alts improve, without backup from them the chances won't be great.

註釋

Tether is moving slowly up again, that's why Finex is much lower than the previous high than the USD exchange on the left.

It looks like a broadening flag/triangle here. Good to see the bulls were able to reach the high again, now we just need to see a break. If that happens, want to see some acceleration up with some good/decent volume.

Please don't forget to like, I would really appreciate the support :)

註釋

Bulls tried to push higher a few times, but they are just still too weak. This is a bad sign. If the current green support breaks, anything can happen. Most probably will be a drop, think the 6300 will be an important level again. So we went from a bear trap yesterday to almost a bull trap now :( It was looking very good yesterday, but they had to break the 6420 but the bears were too strong (or the bulls too weak).

註釋

Again Bitmex is staying higher than the other exchanges, like they are accumulating there? This happened 2/3 weeks ago, when i was able to predict the bear trap at 6200ish. But it was a bit different because it was during a drop, now it's more during a move up. Yesterday we had the same as we see now (look back in the updates of this analysis).
Would be quite easy to think that we just simply move up again?

註釋

This was my idea from a few days for Bitcoin, but because we had that bear trap move yesterday i thought/think the low has been set already and we are on the way up again. Maybe this one is still the play to follow. A lot will depend on how Alts respond, if they remain stable, it could increase the chances for bullish movement.

On the left we can see Tether dropping once again, probably creating a lot of uncertainty as well. I have checked the bullish wedges again, on the USD exchanges they dropped too much again but on the Tether exchanges they are still way above the support zone. As if things are not difficult enough already

註釋

That weakness at the high just showed it's hand, dropped all the way back towards the 6300. Still confusing signs though, Bitfinex wedge is still in full play, but on the right it got invalidated for 80%. Looking at alts, they are not getting dumped. Like nobody got scared of this weakness today and the drop we just made.

Tether still keeps on dropping at the moment, making things even more confusing because it keeps the Bitfinex price higher than it "should" be.

Anyway, the 6300 is being tested but so for no big bounce yet. It's easy to say that a move above 6350 would make things neutral again. A break of 6300ish will probably be (very) bad. One thing is still very clear, Bitmex is still "bullish" and is trying to make a bounce up, while it's mark price exchanges are barely moving from the lows. Bitmex is usually leading, but honestly, don't know what to make of this know, for the coming hours. Just been a lot of PingPong moves, it's even worse than getting caught inside triangle moves.

註釋

Support is breaking now

註釋

Open Intrest on Bitmex is not dropping, actually even increasing and they still hold it compared to the mark price exchanges. Even the liqs just started. Still the 6350ish on the upside for the bulls to break. That could confirm another small bear trap. 6320ish should be a resistance now!
I am calling it a day, good luck watching this :)

註釋

Last update :)

Tether just keeps on dropping it seems, this could give a short term upwards impulse again, but i don't expect the move we saw a month ago, if it happens, i think it will be much smaller.

註釋

Bitfinex chart looking bullish while Gdax is looking bearish and tether just keeps on dropping. Think best choice is just to flip a coin at this point :)

Alts are also not showing clear signs at the moment, some are strong/stable while other are slowly dropping. A break of 6350ish on Gdax would give more clarity on the upside and probably the 6200 on the downside. Since the 6300 has not been of value lately.