BTCUSD
is on its way to $17,000 after bouncing off the $14,000 level of support. This beat my initial expectation that
BTCUSD
would temporarily fall into the $12,000 to $13,000 range. I believe that we will test $17,000 again, and this time break through that level of resistance. If
BTCUSD
breaks to the upside at that level, I predict the price will rise back to $20,000, and completing Step 3 in an Elliot Wave formation. In Step 4, we will see
BTCUSD
correct to the $17,000, where old resistance becomes new support. Barring any black swan events, Step 5 will have
BTCUSD
ride up beyond $20,000. If this prediction is true, most altcoins will suffer a temporary drop in price (in both satoshi and dollar terms), followed by price stagnation in dollar terms. My expectation for a
BTCUSD
bull market is also the reason why I thought
ADABTC
would enter a bear market in Q1 (analysis linked below), despite many long predictions on this site. Finally, I would like to quell some skepticism on a
BTCUSD
bull market beyond TA. First, one major factor that is overlooked is that new money is having difficulty entering the market. In the past week, we've seen Binance, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Kraken, and Gatehub either temporarily closing new registrations, having money transferring difficulties, or temporarily closing the exchange. Second, many note that institutional investors are shorting
BTCUSD
futures by a large margin. The reason why I believe this is not a big concern is because these investors never touch any
BTCUSD
during the betting process. Unless these institutions are dumping their
BTCUSD
directly onto the major cryptocurrency exchanges, shorting
BTCUSD
futures has no direct effect on its price. ___
This analysis is not a buy, sell, or hodl recommendation, and should not be taken as financial advice. I have long positions on
BTCUSD
, USD (:P), and
ADABTC
. As always, thanks for reading and happy trading!