Bitcoin has almost set it's long term low, not there yet
已更新
As promised, i would write a new analysis today, so here it goes. A week or 2 ago i posted an analysis where where i mentioned that i thought the whole 5850/6600 action was one big accumulation phase. So far it has almost been confirmed, but not there yet. When zooming out and looking at the daily chart we can see one very big and solid support levels around the 6000, created several times in 2018. This also tells us how crucial this level is for Bitcoin.
My early followers probably remember, after the April squeeze, that i kept mentioning, that it was best for the market that we would retest the 7000/7500 after the rally towards the 8400 back then. To give rally more foundation and to make it more sustainable. But retail money FOMO'ed the sh.t out of it and as usual they got busted for the millionth time this year after the 10.000 got rejected. (I still owe you guys my sick theory from 3/4 months ago, i will tell it when my website is ready soon :))
It has become more clear that volume has dropped the past month, allot more smart money has entered the market and retail money is a much smaller portion of this market now. Beside this, there is so much fear in this market nowadays, the chances of big rallies that we were used to have become much smaller.
Anyway, back to the the long term 6K support, this time we have a much more solid support area, it has been tested several times now and so far with great succes. The V shape low for Bitcoin, which i mentioned for a few months, that it could still happen, well it never did. However, the alts did make a big panic low 2 weeks ago. Next to that, it could be that the panic dump of Bitcoin from 8500 to 5850 was the V shape low, but for that to be true we should see a good and fast continuation of this rally the coming week or 2. But a V shape is not necessary or that it MUST happen.
For the coming days/week i see several options. Assuming the market is still bullish, i want to see it stay above the 6500ish. Best case we have set the low already today and we continue the rally to keep the speed of the rally at it's highest. The 7150 is an important level, it was a big resistance a weeks ago and this time once again. I think that if we go towards the 7100/7150 again within the next 2 days, i am quite sure it will break. As i mentioned the past few weeks, the 7300/7400 is the turning point for me between mid-term bull and bear market. So what i am thinking is, if we break the 7150 within the next 24H, the 7400 will most probably break as well. Assuming it will happen like that, the 7800/8000 will probably break as well and if that happens, the 8500 will just be a matter of time IMO. This is the purple line version.
The red version, is when things go very slow and without any conviction. Then the chances increase the rally could stop at the 7150/7400 levels. This could indicate the bears are still fully in control and they will make another attempt to push the price down again.
I favor the bullish version :)
Previous analysis
My early followers probably remember, after the April squeeze, that i kept mentioning, that it was best for the market that we would retest the 7000/7500 after the rally towards the 8400 back then. To give rally more foundation and to make it more sustainable. But retail money FOMO'ed the sh.t out of it and as usual they got busted for the millionth time this year after the 10.000 got rejected. (I still owe you guys my sick theory from 3/4 months ago, i will tell it when my website is ready soon :))
It has become more clear that volume has dropped the past month, allot more smart money has entered the market and retail money is a much smaller portion of this market now. Beside this, there is so much fear in this market nowadays, the chances of big rallies that we were used to have become much smaller.
Anyway, back to the the long term 6K support, this time we have a much more solid support area, it has been tested several times now and so far with great succes. The V shape low for Bitcoin, which i mentioned for a few months, that it could still happen, well it never did. However, the alts did make a big panic low 2 weeks ago. Next to that, it could be that the panic dump of Bitcoin from 8500 to 5850 was the V shape low, but for that to be true we should see a good and fast continuation of this rally the coming week or 2. But a V shape is not necessary or that it MUST happen.
For the coming days/week i see several options. Assuming the market is still bullish, i want to see it stay above the 6500ish. Best case we have set the low already today and we continue the rally to keep the speed of the rally at it's highest. The 7150 is an important level, it was a big resistance a weeks ago and this time once again. I think that if we go towards the 7100/7150 again within the next 2 days, i am quite sure it will break. As i mentioned the past few weeks, the 7300/7400 is the turning point for me between mid-term bull and bear market. So what i am thinking is, if we break the 7150 within the next 24H, the 7400 will most probably break as well. Assuming it will happen like that, the 7800/8000 will probably break as well and if that happens, the 8500 will just be a matter of time IMO. This is the purple line version.
The red version, is when things go very slow and without any conviction. Then the chances increase the rally could stop at the 7150/7400 levels. This could indicate the bears are still fully in control and they will make another attempt to push the price down again.
I favor the bullish version :)
Previous analysis
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The analysis where i talked about the accumulation 
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The daily looks good now, almost a reversal, on the right we can see it broke out of that channel, but it's only valid if that green support works out.註釋
Here we can see, how the market is becoming smarter and because of that, is changing. The shorts are closing almost just as fast as in April, but this time not because of a big squeeze, no they make sure they hold the price around these levels so they can close the position with policy instead of getting a green dildo up their ... :)This doesn't say allot, but it is a bullish sign IMO!
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Looks like a small H&S in the making here, could bring us to the low again註釋
Target seems to have been reached, maybe another wave down. But the bounce looks good and on the right we can see it still fits the pullback picture. We have to assume that if they don't go up here (breakout from that channel) we will drop back in again, then the 6800 is the next support again, a break of that level could bring us lower again註釋
At exactly 17.00 the the price on bitmex got pumped, others did not follow. Bitfinex seems te be out of order, Strange...Anyway, looking at the chart, if they can get it above the 7000, it could be bullish signs. Looks like in inverse H&S that should bring us back to the 7100/7150. I don't like these kind of H&S, but they do work out sometimes.
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Broker the H&S, made a small rally towards 7100, but jus not conviction for this inverse H&S, it's not yet a bad sign, but it's no good as well. With crypto we usually don't see a full pullback to the neckline, so i should stay above the 7000ish. A break of that bigger green support zone, will probably mean we can test the 6800 again of maybe even lower. I do think if they can push it above the 7100, it will probably break the 7150. And with a break of this level, we should see a small squeeze up. But it's Friday night, and Saturday usually nothing happens, so i am afraid we don't see the rally soon, but who knows.註釋
The inverse H&S of Bitcoin seems to be in play and allot of alts show the same pattern as Bitcoin as well, this tells me the market has something planned. The sentiment is good, so the level to break for now is the 7100/7150. 註釋
Whatever happens, do not want to see it below the 7000/6980, because i can see their pushing it down again on Bitmex. Bitfinex is trying to push up, so fights going on again. Best we stay above the 7040註釋
Not looking good now, thought this wedge would not play out, still around support zone, but be aware. Can't say clearly what's going on because the volume is low, so i don't know if they are pushing price down into buy orders or simply bears pushing it down. It looked perfect an hour ago, now it doesn't. 註釋
I do see the number of contracts on Bitmex have increased a bit during this drop, just can't say on which side, long or short. Assuming retail money buys at the highs and smart money is pushing them out now, would expect a decrease of the contracts. Thats why i think there is a chance it was a push down into buy orders. But i can't know this for sure, just an assumption. It could also mean a bunch of new short positions have openend. We will probably get our answer withing the next half hour.註釋
So far it looks like they were filling up longs as mentioned above. That small bear flag is invalidated now. Lets see if they can push it now.註釋
As Finex traders have been doing the past month, the biggest bulls are there. Just now they are even trying to push it harder, but other exchanges are not yet following. We want to see things stay above the 7150, to keep the pressure on the bears. If they can, we should see 7300/7400 later today註釋
Still looking good and very stable flag pattern, alts also looking good. A few months ago it would be easy to say this is a guarantee that we follow through to the upside, but nowadays we all now things have changed. Anyway, looks good, 7150/7170 still holding註釋
Still looking good,good strong bull flag! Still a chance they break downwards, but up is much higher.This was Saturday a week ago, when we had that false breakout from that big bullflag/triangle. But the volume was much lower than today, so should be smaller chance that we see a dump from these levels.
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Broke out, got dumped again since not all exchanges followed, should stay above the 7200ish, otherwise a Bart move is possible, meaning a quick dump towards 7000/7100 to shake out longs.註釋
The Barty boys seem to be at work again :)Still in the safe zone, above 7150/7200, but it looks like a possible small H&S has been made. Need to get back above 7220ish to invalidate it. Otherwise we could drop to the 7100 again
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