BTCUSD: The Crowd Losing Interest? Time To Do The Opposite.

BTCUSD update: The first bearish trend line is in the process of being compromised which is a bullish sign. The problem is, this market is becoming more sluggish than expected. As this market takes its time to form a possible bottom, it is important not to lose sight of the most reasonable possibilities.

The 6970 level is where the first bearish trend line is located. You can observe from this chart that previous attempts to break above the trend line has been met with swift selling. This time, the selling (small upper wicks on current and previous candles) is not so swift. This indecisive price action can be interpreted as an absence of selling, or a quiet accumulation which has been going on for at least a week now (the previous minor upswing).

You can also make the argument that this initial bearish trend line is still in play since it has not been broken with any conviction. With this in mind, price can still reasonably retest the 6204 level before mounting a reversal. In order to reduce the chances of this scenario, this market needs to clear 7492 which is the .382 of the recent bearish swing. I would consider a close above that level as a form of confirmation that bullish momentum is regaining control. Until then, I would still be open to the possibility of price retesting 6204 or even 6K.

In summary, one of our authors on S.C. (Gillian) wrote about a very interesting and telling observation about the level of interest in this market. She described how the Google searches related to Bitcoin trading has dramatically declined. This is very typical of the herd mentality. The main stream loses interest, the media stops hyping about it, and the opportunity to buy at some very attractive levels goes unnoticed. In my opinion, this is the best time to build a position. Not at 12K, not at 16K or 18K. That is when the crowd will get excited to buy, and the smart money unloads their cheaply acquired inventory for profit. Less experienced investors who do not understand the concepts of market sentiment, are impatient and want this process to happen now. It can take a year. As long as the technology and ecosystem are expanding, it is just a matter of time. The best thing you can do is accumulate small, and then find the alts with the highest potential, and invest into those. That is where the growth opportunity is (did you see the OMG signal on S.C?)

Questions and comments welcome.