floring67

Weaker 5th Elliot wave followed by ABC correction?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
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We've just retraced to 4th Elliot wave in the 12345 pattern, with smaller retracements than I've expected. That is because bulls exhausted their resources trying to reverse the bearish trend , but were failing to build volume and RSI was overbought. For building more momentum, I think deeper retracements would have been needed.
So I am expecting the 5th wave not to be as strong as one would expect, to be stopped a little above $8500 (maybe even lower, but good opportunity to short), and a deep ABC correction should follow that would eventually send us down to $6600.
Phil's hypothesis (@PRO_indicators) about the repetition of the 2014 crash pattern seems to be basically confirmed.

These are my opinions, expecting constructive criticism, we're all in the same boat surrounded by whales! :)
評論: Wrongly counted waves, this would be the pattern for now:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/oPMBbA...
Wave 4 cannot retrace into wave 1 - it's one of the golden rules of Elliott. Furthermore, your ABC is not valid if it finishes before the start of wave 1 - a corrective wave can't be longer than the impulse wave (wave 2 cannot retrace before the start of wave 1)

Wave 1 started at $6504, we finished 5 waves up and finished wave A which retraced precisely to 0.236 fib level.
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floring67 alexyeoh
@alexyeoh, yeah, you're right, I didn't notice where I've placed wave 4 retracement, we must then have done the A wave already. That wave 1 pump made hard the things to read. Ok also with corrective wave, but I think wave C would go to at least 0.618 fib level. But as a large picture, as it will be inside the downtrend channel, big odds are to get a downwards impulse wave, as D4 was showing. That would only change the wave numbering and notation. However I don't think the wave 5 would end at $3500, as he said, we have a little more bull power than that.
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