已更新

Everyone is confused, i THINK i go the answer to this puzzle :)

Bulls and bears getting frustrated by this sideways action, i know i am. If we would just know upfront when price falls a sleep like this, than we could get some extra sleep as well :)

A few days ago i made a perfect call by going long at 6460 (average price) when we broke that flag/triangle/pennant/whatever on the downside. I was watching the price action very closely and my gut told me there were some big buyers there and in a split second i decided to go long. Was a risky trade, no risk no reward :). My target was 7700 and everything was looking just perfect. I closed half my position at 7330 (because of that fractal analysis of mine), because i thought just in case, lets lock in some profit and reduce risk. I wanted to let the rest ride to at least 7700 but maybe even higher but in secret i was going for 8K levels (shhhh don't tell anyone). I saw that small H&S and the bigger one getting formed at the same time, But i thought if this market is really strong, the H&S fails and it would accelerate up, just like it did around the 6800 during that rally, which i posted realtime.

Anyway, we got our confirmation very soon, the market was not ready for this move up. Because it just kept dropping. The first signal was that fake breakout of the bull flag at 7400 to 7500. Thing now is, we are still above the 6400 low, even though the market has shown so much weakness. So my guess is, levels between 6400/7700 is one big accumulation phase. This theory fails if we drop below the green area (6400) give or take 100 points (it's never exact science).

That big purple (half) circle is just to show the high probability that we will start to see higher lows. Just like on the left side that the lows were getting less low (drops getting smaller). I see many people drawing allot of wedges, but i just don't like them at all. You cannot just draw lines if they connect, sometimes it's just a coincidence and not part of the same chapter of the story. Of course they do show some characteristics of a wedge, absolutely.

While i was writing this, i posted that i went long at 6600 and will add up till 6500. Now i am not betting my whole life on this guys, it's just another, just another trade! I am keeping the position small because it's still a counter trend wave! I have my stop just below the 6400, maybe 6350. I have been looking at the volume picture, but i still can't get my finger on it. Maybe i will get the answer in my dream later today :)

So clearly i think it's an accumulation phase. Of course i have my reasons why i think it's that, but i won't tell. I can't give away every secret i have :) But i did give you guys a big hint, so it's up to you to solve the puzzle :).

But i would wait first to see what happens, because if we start to drop and break the 6K than my theory is completely wrong of course.So it would (probably) just be a waste of your time. To be clear, i am still a big bear about this market, have been for many months now, have been calling the 7,5k/6K/4K levels quite a while now. But it's just a correctional wave up that i am expecting. Good luck trading :)

註釋

This was one of my updates earlier today, where i said we could drop to the green area and probably see a move up. A bear trap on a small scale. It tells me, there are people catching the price there. Could be they don't have enough buying power, but time will tell. Think we will get our answer within a day. Just to bad it's weekend, because normally volume gets lower and my theory could ad a disadvantage because of that

註釋

SHould get a small answer within the hour is think. But a false move is possible of course, on both sides

註釋

Locked and loaded and lift off :) Reversal man :)

註釋

Right in the resistance, if it pushes through it could trigger another squeeze

註釋

Come on guys, if you like this analysis, give a like. I am calling it a day again. I will update tomorrow if the likes get above 300, first modest target :)

註釋

Now we don't want to see to much hesitation, this has to be a fast correction and up again, or a correction in time but than price has to stay above 6750. Good luck guys

註釋

There is a very big road of many resistances, so don't count yourself rich to soon if your long. We have seen what happened last time. I have moved my stop to my average entry level at 6570. I am going for at 7K+ prices at least, so i am risking my profit

註釋

So far it's looking quite strong and stable, it's still a clear correction in time and it has stayed well above 6800 even. Now we don't want to see this sideways action taking another half day, want to see it break the heavy resistance at 6900 within a few hours. Conviction and follow through is important for bulls in this very bearish sentiment. On the very short time frame, 6840 looks like a small support now and 6750ish is a level i don't want to see broken

註釋

This is what we need to keep our eye one, for the med term, this triangle. This could break both ways, bearish sentiment is still the highest, but i break of this pattern around 7100/7200 could start to change things a bit for the med term. At least killing the speed of the decline

註釋

Keep the likes coming guys if you like this idea, put me back on top again, but only if you think i should be there, otherwise don't :)

註釋

This drop was to be expected, but so far it has stayed above the 6750 i mentioned. If we zoom out a bit, we can see it's a retest of the triangle we broke out of yesterday (blue lines). Price jumped right up again, but we are not out of the danger zone yet! I would like to see it stay above the 6800 now showing the bears some strength and scaring them slowly in to buying back their positions and force a short covering rally.

註釋

Broke the neckline of the inverse H&S, with volume. Should not get below the neckline (yellow line)
I am letting my position ride, moved my stop to around 6750 now, ensuring a small profit

註釋

Small bull flag in the making now, would be best it pushes through within the next 10 min. If so, i think we ca see a massive squeeze

註釋

Target of the H&S is around 7200/7300. But there is a heavy resistance around 7200, so it wont be easy!

Thanks for getting my BTC nr 1 spot again. Keep the likes coming guys if you think i deserve it :)

註釋

Think i have a target now, around 8200/8500, it all depends on if we can push through 7500

註釋

New analysis