Trading Bitcoin in the new Realities of 'Mainstream'
When Reality Bites - How to Deal with it Dispassionately - or Miss up to 50% of all opportunities...trading for Adults in a grown-up world
For those who like pattern spotting there have been three or four very good sell points off the Coinbase chart. Maybe 80%
of the few people who read this will have Bull hats on, are inherent, full-on bulls. Only 10 to 20% will be bears. If one or
the other we will miss 50% of all trading oppotunites, roughly. Who was looking for sell signals recently (after that RHS
failure) ? No, because most of us are bulls we're only looking for positive signals. Try to be dispassionate about Bitcoin -
that is not easy, being as we're humans. We're programmed to want to join the herd. A bison gets FOMO too, that's why he
wants inside the herd and not out. Penguins too. But we are not penguins. We need to stop acting like one. Agreed? We
need to be like doctors who will get sued for giving the wrong diagnosis, however bad that might be. The patient wants
truth not platitudes. That's how we need to view Bitcoin. If we love it too much we cloud judgement and lose trade
opportunities. So strive to be dispassionate. Or it will cost you roughly half of all opportunities. Look at the trail Bitcoin has
left...get down off your horse and look...look how good those sells were on the breaks...how the first two break and then
come back to retest the little dynamic from the underside and that's the sell with stops say 50 higher (never touched) and
then look at the third and last arrow in the sequence - the market is moving fast at this point and there is no retest this
time. And then the series of highs running right into the resistance line at 12472. Each was a fantastic near term
opportunity to mine another 1000 points minimum out of this monster, and the last 2 breaks were 2000 points - that's 6000
points in breaks in 3 days. That is 60% of total value of Bitcoin right now. How crazy is that? You NEED to be Ok with shorting
as well as going long to survive this market. You are not going to get every one, but half would have been good, very good.
And look how simple the patterns are ! That ain't rocket science is it? One single line of dynamic support (upside
doesn't really matter too much in a downtrend), we just need to get a line under the counter-rally - behaves very
differently, obviously, in a slower market at top half of chart than in fast market where patterns are obscured in the noise
more easily.
When Reality Bites - How to Deal with it Dispassionately - or Miss up to 50% of all opportunities...trading for Adults in a grown-up world
For those who like pattern spotting there have been three or four very good sell points off the Coinbase chart. Maybe 80%
of the few people who read this will have Bull hats on, are inherent, full-on bulls. Only 10 to 20% will be bears. If one or
the other we will miss 50% of all trading oppotunites, roughly. Who was looking for sell signals recently (after that RHS
failure) ? No, because most of us are bulls we're only looking for positive signals. Try to be dispassionate about Bitcoin -
that is not easy, being as we're humans. We're programmed to want to join the herd. A bison gets FOMO too, that's why he
wants inside the herd and not out. Penguins too. But we are not penguins. We need to stop acting like one. Agreed? We
need to be like doctors who will get sued for giving the wrong diagnosis, however bad that might be. The patient wants
truth not platitudes. That's how we need to view Bitcoin. If we love it too much we cloud judgement and lose trade
opportunities. So strive to be dispassionate. Or it will cost you roughly half of all opportunities. Look at the trail Bitcoin has
left...get down off your horse and look...look how good those sells were on the breaks...how the first two break and then
come back to retest the little dynamic from the underside and that's the sell with stops say 50 higher (never touched) and
then look at the third and last arrow in the sequence - the market is moving fast at this point and there is no retest this
time. And then the series of highs running right into the resistance line at 12472. Each was a fantastic near term
opportunity to mine another 1000 points minimum out of this monster, and the last 2 breaks were 2000 points - that's 6000
points in breaks in 3 days. That is 60% of total value of Bitcoin right now. How crazy is that? You NEED to be Ok with shorting
as well as going long to survive this market. You are not going to get every one, but half would have been good, very good.
And look how simple the patterns are ! That ain't rocket science is it? One single line of dynamic support (upside
doesn't really matter too much in a downtrend), we just need to get a line under the counter-rally - behaves very
differently, obviously, in a slower market at top half of chart than in fast market where patterns are obscured in the noise
more easily.
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評論:
Bitfinex feed Longer Term Key levels and break points
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Bitstamp Feed
still best for Flag Spotters, Coinbase for levels at moment
Coinbase for levels at moment
still best for Flag Spotters, Coinbase for levels at moment
Coinbase for levels at moment