教育

BITCOIN: What's driving it? Is 30,000 in sight?

已更新

In this video I show my theory on what's probably happening with BTCUSD.

It appears that Bitcoin is being used to hedge against the US Dollar crashing.

$22,000 is certain in sight and who knows it could get to $30,000 sooner than anyone might imagine.

I still think that BTC is too volatile for my liking and therefore I've stayed out. I've been happy to avoid FOMO. I've lost nothing.

I think that many will profit from a possible further charge north. But there is also still a risk that it BTC could reverse significantly.

Best wishes for the Christmas period 🎅and have a Happy Prosperous New Year. 🥂🎁

註釋

For anybody trading an inherently very volatile instrument like BTC (and others such as exotic currency pairs), the big issue is loss control. I am not personally in trade on BTC. For me, it's too risky and loss control difficult in my own methodology - so I'm out of it. I'm quite happy for those who made their money, by different strategies.

My analysis covers only one possible contributory factor. A non-linear analysis of numerous contributory factors was not practicable. Where there are multiple factors affecting the price action of any instrument, everybody is right to some degree. But the objective of trading is not to be right about anyone aspect.

Whilst a part of my analysis looked into a theoretical aspect of fundamentals, I'm primarily a technical trader. I focus on trends and sentiment. BTC price action is useful for my learning. It is not uncommon for trends to become visible only at a later stage of their development.

註釋

The bets are on! $30,000 within the next 24 hours? 🤣

註釋

3-day time frame. I have a bad feeling about this.

註釋

Well there was good trouble indeed. Price has busted past $30,000 like nobody's business.

I think even 50,000 may come pretty quickly (not a prediction). I say so because of the effect of the news i.e. the average Joe or Jane will be affected and follow in. They don't know what's what, so they'll probably be thinking I better put $100 or whatever they think can afford to lose. That 'mass-effect' of a crowd trying to get a piece of the action, is what could all add up.

The chart has certainly gone exponential, in what seems to be a 4H ATR trend.

We saw temporary consolidations in that trend. This means it is superheated and in frenzy-mode.

We know this is gonna end in bad news for a majority. We just don't know when.

註釋

Update on the big picture