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Bitcoin vs. Global M2 | 10-Week Lead Correlation

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This chart highlights the strong correlation between Bitcoin’s price (RHS, blue) and Global M2 Money Supply (10-week lead, orange), suggesting that Bitcoin’s price action lags behind global liquidity trends by approximately 10 weeks. Historically, increases in M2 have led to bullish Bitcoin movements, making M2 a leading indicator for BTC’s price action.

Bitcoin has closely followed M2’s trajectory, and the chart marks April 9 as a key turning point, with a critical support level around $79,470. Given M2’s prior surge, Bitcoin is expected to initiate a strong upward move post-April 9, potentially pushing toward six figures ($100K+) in Q2 2024 if the correlation holds.

While short-term consolidation or a retest of $79,470 remains possible, the medium-term outlook remains bullish. If M2 continues to rise, Bitcoin is likely to follow, with projected targets in the $95K - $110K+ range. However, macroeconomic risks, such as a slowdown in M2 growth or liquidity tightening, could delay the expected breakout.

Key Takeaways:
April 9 marks a potential breakout point for Bitcoin, following M2’s lead.

Key support: $79,470 (a potential bounce zone before the rally).

Medium-term targets: $95K - $110K+ by mid-2024.

Watch Global M2 trends—continued liquidity growth supports a Bitcoin bull run.

If Bitcoin maintains its correlation with M2, this liquidity-driven cycle could propel BTC to new all-time highs in the coming months. 🚀

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