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Bitcoin and the 240 Bearflag (AGAIN!!) The REAL bottom!

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Bitcoin rejected the top boundary of the long term trend shortly after squaring up the previous 4 hour candle drop from 7400 to 6900 on August 12th. With the return of the heavy volume dumping, we see the formation of a new 240 bear flag. This drop in price action is hitting harder and faster than the last drop from the 8400 area to test the bottom around the 5800-5900 area. This may be the beginning of the final bottoming process in this major market correction off the all-time high. Since breaking the .618 fib, we have hooked back and are now sitting just around that fib level and the price is struggling to break above this area. There may be a quick square up to the 6600 area (option 2) but the highest probability even is that we continue to be rejected off the .618 fib level around 6400-6500 and then we drop hard to the 6200 previous level of support. We may get a small bounce or sideways movement from there before breaking the level to attempt a test of the previous floor around 5800-5900 that has been tested multiple times over the last few months.

I am expecting a break of this level to finally put in a real bottom. How low will it go if we break the floor? There is a strong large time frame fib around the mid to high 3000s. We may wick below there before the bottom is finally in and we can finally begin to prepare for a return of the real bull run in the largest time frames. Volatility is expected to increase, so if you are shorting it would be wise to use a low leverage to keep your liquidation point well above previous support levels (7200 min, preferably 7400+).

This is not financial advice and is solely intended for educational purposes! Updates to be included in the future.

Everything I learned, I learned from: tradecryptolive.net
They have a free FaceB group at: facebook.com/groups/CryptoLive
and of course I learned a ton from studying the market since I found crypto last November!

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Correction (missing option 1) ----- There may be a quick square up to the 6600 area (option 2) but the highest probability event is that we continue to be rejected off the .618 fib level around 6400-6500 (option 1) and then we drop hard to the 6200 previous level of support.

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We've broken the bull flag as expected for the highest probability option 1, now I'll be looking for the candle that is completely outside the flag to close entirely outside of the pattern without attempting to re-enter it. The highest probability event to occur next if the outside candle is unable to re-enter the pattern, is the next drop down to test around the 6200 level. If there is enough volume, we may break right past it and work towards the 6k support and then I'll be looking for the next pullback for another possible bear flag or other continuation pattern.

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We are approaching the time many traders call the "New York Lunch" time. There have been many times in the past when big moves were made or started around 12pm-3pm EST, so watch after this candle closes as we MIGHT get some action in the next few hours. If we continue sideways here, look to see what happens around Asian Markets opening time and just before which is around 6-8pm EST. A return of heavy volume should accompany the move down. If the volume is weak it may be a fake dip, so be cautious if you aren't already in this trade! Timing moves is near impossible, but past experience watching this market and studying education written by experienced forex traders has taught me that there are certain times of the day when moves are more likely to occur. Be safe with your risk management and protect your crypto!

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We've stayed outside the bull flag and so far the volume has been relatively low. We hooked back from the break nicely and did not re-enter the pattern, but so far the significant volume that will likely accompany the next big move down has not shown up. It is possible that there may be more sideways movement that would suggest a pole pattern since there was no big drop after we broke out of the bear flag pattern. If we are forming a pole, it would still be a coninuation pattern to go lower, so look for a large volume break of the 6200-6300 level to open up a solid down move towards the 5900-6000 level. This was the highly likely option 1. For now, we watch and wait.

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We seem to be moving sideways inside the channel formed by the 618 and 786 fibs. If you look left, you can see this is similar to the way we moved through this area last time. If a high volume drop breaks below the 786 fib level around 6200-6300, it is possible that we get a little pull back to test that 786 as a resistance level after the break. If we stay below that level, it is highly likely we will drop from there to test the 5900-6000 level. If you are short, then you are looking to see if we can break that level. If you have not been trading for a long time, this may be a good spot to take profits or exit entirely. The decision is always your responsibility, I am not a financial advisor and this information is not financial advice. It is entirely for education purposes!

註釋

It is possible we see a fake break above the 618 or below the 786, so keep an eye on the volume for secondary confirmation of moves out of the current sideways pole pattern.

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Aha - we are on track with the original idea! :) We could keep going down from here to test the floor again. The first possibility is in play, as is the second one on this updated pic where we could hook back to test the fib we have only barely broken. If the previous upper 6200s support area holds as a new level of resistance, then we are most likely to get to test the floor once again around 5900-6000. If we get a really big show of volume to the downside as this occurs (next week could finally be the one now that Summer is over and the big boys are back with volume), we may break the floor and begin the panic selling to put in a real bottom. This is dangerous territory and heavy risk management should be practiced. This is not financial advice and is only for educational purposes. Best of luck and protect your crypto!

註釋

My final thought is to be vigilant because this is weekend trading action and the weekends are known to be dangerous and full of tricks. There is always the possibility that we go back up into the pole, so I know I'll be keeping my leverage low and not letting my emotions trick me into pressing the button until we show if we are going much lower first!

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This is the sort of trick weekend move that I was talking about in my previous comment. The 786 fib level did not provide new resistance and we went right back up into the pole.

There is nothing saying that we won't return to drop lower from here, but many traders will see the higher lows on the daily chart as evidence that "the bottom is in" and "we're bullish again." Anything is possible, but we'd need to break that big time frame downtrend (the while descending line) before I would even entertain such an idea. We still have yet to produce anything that looks like a bottom and reversal.

Weekend moves like these are why it's important to watch and wait for confirmation while not letting your emotions affect your trading behavior. Now if we drop from here and do not break the bottom of the pole again, there will likely be many traders calling an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This is not the bottom of a 5 wave trend where an inverse h&s would be highly significant, but the pattern is well known enough that it could cause some upward momentum and square up some of the previous drops.

Right now the best thing to do is wait and watch for greater volume to return. So far today the daily high is still lower than yesterday, but that could change in a single candle. The big boys should be back to play after the weekend is over, so I'll continue to keep my leverage low and liquidation high. Remember we are in a 5th wave and volatility is very high. There's always the possibility from here that we retrace some of the drop from 7400 so be careful not to over-leverage. We need to see if we are going to move up out of the pole or drop back down out of it. Either way we still need some heavy volume to confirm the next direction out of this pole. This is still not financial advice and is for education only.

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Here is a new possibility, we may be in a triangle pattern looking to break out to the up or downside. Since we dropped into the triangle pattern from above, if this is the pattern we are in now then we the most likely move next would be a breakout to the downside. This is just one possibility based on the current candles. We may break out of the triangle sideways and continue moving between the 6200-6500 range.

uesdays are big move days in Forex and other markets, so look for volume to show up today or tomorrow sometime as an indication that we are starting the next big move in either direction. Divergence set up yesterday similar to the way that it set up the last time we bounced to the 7400 area, so it is possible that we make a smaller fractal bounce to the 6600 .5 fib area before we get the next big drop down.

Until we have more information, we will have to continue to watch and wait!

註釋

*Tuesdays are big move days*

Apologies for the typos, I am busy today and will update when we get any important moves from here.

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We're still holding tight inside the triangle pattern. The price action is sitting right on top of the 786 fib at the 6200 area. We still have not seen a return of volume that would suggest a strong move so we continue to wait and watch for now!

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Still waiting and watching!!

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We rejected the top of the triangle pattern, but we are still waiting for the volume to show up to push a strong move out of the pattern.

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Nothing has changed yet, we are still inside the pattern and waiting for some real volume to return!

註釋

They broke the triangle pattern to the upside and we are starting to see a little action with slightly higher volume. The volume is still not great, so it may be a false breakout, but it is possible they head back up to square up some of the red candles from the last big drop if it continues to increase. If we see a run up to the 6500 area with a strong rejection, it could trigger a deeper stronger dive. If we break past the 6500-6600 area it could mean potential to go higher. Consider taking some profit if you are in, but the choice is always yours.

I took some profit with a stop loss set outside the triangle. I still have half my original position with my liquidation above 7400. Always have an exit plan in case the market moves against you quickly.

註釋

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We are sitting around the bottom of the 6500-6600 area. Look for the big volume to come in if we go past 6600. Either a big move up to break the long term downtrend (the white line at the top of the previous picutre) or volume to slam the price down like it did the last time we approached the long term downtrend before we dropped from 7400. Either way, it will likely be a big move so plan accordingly. I personally always use stop losses just outside of the important trend lines. If you are short from 6500 or below and your liquidation is outside the long term trend down, you may get an opportunity to add on a rejection of the long term trend line. Look for heavy volume to show up somewhere around 6600-7000 if we do go past 6600. The sellers are still in control on the large time frames and there has been no indication yet that this is changing. We are just experiencing some pull back so far from the first big drop. Anyone over leveraged is highly at risk of liquidation. This is not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor. I will be looking to add the gains I took when we broke the small triangle pattern into my short position if we can get a strong rejection to show up as this low volume retracement starts to die out. If we break the long term trend though, I have a stop loss sitting around 7050 that would give me a little bit of profit and allow me to decide where to enter next based on how we arrived at that price. I am still short and expecting a break of the bottom before we get the real big time frame trend reversal.

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We are seeing some volume return with a push to the downside, but we have yet to break the bottom of the 6200-6400 manipulation area. I am still holding onto my short position and was able to add to my position back in the 6500 area. Now we want to see if they push the price lower over the next couple of days. Look at the volume during any pullbacks to see if it increases or decreases into the pullback.

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What at first seemed like a triangle, now appears more likely to be a large bear flag that needed more time to form. If this is indeed the case, then we can expect a possible pull back from here as we just stopped at the important support/resistance area around the 786 fib on this chart. If we can get a 4 hour candle to open and close below the flag (where we are now) then I expect volume to increase into the downward price action. Look for another test of the 6000-6200 area. If we can break through again we may finally be in for a real drop to find the bottom of this 9 month long downtrend! As always, we continue to watch and wait. Sometimes the hardest part of trading is waiting in between opening and closing a trade!

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Zoomed into the 1 hr chart to adjust fibs, it seems they are using the wicks and now the picture is getting a little clearer. We could still see a pullback to where we broke out of the bear flag around 6300-6400, but so far we are holding down at the 6250s near the last low spot we bounced from when we first dropped off the 7400s. Expecting to see more volume come in this week. If it is selling volume and it is heavy enough we could get a break we've been waiting for.

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We're heading back to the edge of the bear flag after the break. This would be called a hook and we should watch very closely as price action approaches the edge of the flag we broke out of. If we get a strong rejection from anywhere around this area 6300-6400, we should head down to make lower lows. On the other hand, if we break back into the flag we could be given another chance to add between 6500-6600. So far, this hook has been on low volume and suggests that we are likely hooking back to test the flag trend line that should provide solid resistance and push us back down towards the bottom.

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We rejected the bear flag trend line, now if we can get some decent selling volume we should see a nice drop in the near future. The selling volume is still low as you can see on the pullback, but it could show up at any time. Until we get heavy selling to break the bottom of this bear flag pattern around 6100, there is still the possibility of going back into the flag pattern, but so far the price action is supporting further selling action to come.

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Now may be a good spot to take some profit and put it aside. The bottom was not broken with strong volume on the first push, so it is likely we get another bounce from here back towards the bear flag break. It is possible that the volume picks up and does break the bottom, so it may be wise to take some profit and then watch to see if the bottom gets broken or if the price action moves back up. Don't let profits trigger your emotions, especially greed. This is not financial advice!

註釋

If you had been listening to me when I posted the suggestion to take profit 2 hours ago, you now have some gains to use to add to your position. I am still short, but I sold 75% of my position at 6150 because I happened to be watching when the price was moving. When I saw that the push down wasn't strong enough to break the 6100 level. I took profit as the price began to start moving back to the upside when the selling volume dropped off.

We broke back into the bear flag briefly, but did not close inside it. Notice the price action is stuck just under the bottom trendline of the bear flag. They have wicked up into the flag pattern a couple of times, but are holding below it. If they push back up again to the top of the bear flag before starting the next big drop, we could see the price touch as high as 6700-6800. I have sells spread out to scale in at 6599, 6699, and 6799. I am still keeping my leverage low (below 10x) so that my liquidation is sitting above that 7400 area where we first started the last large drop from. If they don't break back into the pattern, look for volume to begin increasing to the downside and prepare to take some profit again if we do not break the 6100 level. If we do, watch for the 5900 area big time frame support level and be prepared. There's no guarantee we break the floor even if the chart is suggesting we are preparing to do so! Always have an exit plan and be ready for volatility. If you keep your leverage low and your liquidation high, then you should have room to exit if we begin to see the possibility of a higher high on the big time frames, which has not happened since we started the downtrend.

This is not financial advice and is for educational purposes only!

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Just following the bottom trend line of the flag pattern, still no open or close inside it on the 4 hour. I still have shorts to add if we pop into it or a little higher. Still waiting and watching!

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As expected, they have climbed back up to 6800 and picked up all my shorts. Now it is wise to have stop losses in place beyond 7200 and your liquidation should be above 7400 or higher. Mine is at 7900. I've been sick the last 2 days so apologiesfor the lack of updates but they followed the previous comment fairly well so I watched and rested. They could still push a bit higher and if you're liquidation is high enough you might be able to pull up your average with extra capital but you must always have an exit plan where you control what losses you are comfortable with in case we push above 7000 and with heavy buying volume. The most likely next move is to correct the recent push up, so I'll be looking for the selling volume to begin increasing to push us back towards that floor that we still need to break.

註釋

P.s. If you're wondering why my liquidation moved up it was from the added sells, not a change in leverage or added margin. This is not financial advice!

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If you take a look at the BTC shorts, they are starting to exit and close their positions. This may be an indication of a short squeeze coming. What to do? Personally, what I did was close half of my position and then used that capital to scale in new sells around 6905, 7005, 7105, 7205, and 7305. There is a possibility that they may go as high as the initial drop in order to clear the order books and put on a short squeezed to liquidate all the over leveraged shorts. This type of move is why keeping your liquidation point high is so critical. If you have a small amount of capital in play, you might be better off closing your position and waiting for a better entry. It all depends on your goals and trading strategy.

I personally see the possibility of the real drop coming at any time, so I want to keep half my position in to capitalize on that, but I still want to cost average up if they do a short squeeze. With half of my position closed, I am able to set new sells higher up that would raise my liquidation for the next drop. I also decreased my leverage so that my liquidation even at my current entry price is at 7600. That way, as my sells get picked up (if we move higher) my liquidation point will move up with my entry price.

Looking at the BTCUSD longs (on bottom of the picture) you can see that longs are not picking up, which suggests if we do get a short squeeze, it will likely be short lived. Possibly one of those quick wicks up and a return to current prices, so you have to have your plan in place before the price starts moving too fast for you to react.

This is not financial advice and I am not an adviser. This is just for educational purposes.

註釋

I am still short in the big picture and until the long term down trend is broken, I will remain so. We are still well inside the bear flag pattern after re-entering it a few days ago. It is possible that if the short squeeze plays out, we might get a fake break of the long term trend in order to suck in more money so that big players can enter large short positions on the fake breakout. Look for a low volume break of the long term trend (the white diagonal descending line) that may look something like this. I don't expect the price to follow this exactly, but it is one highly possible scenario that could play out since we have been continuing the bear flag upon re-entering the pattern.

註釋

See the comments for a market update video from my mentors. Also meant to post this up here, nothing has changed, so I'm reposting up here:

Notice a pattern? Hopefully on the fake to the downside, you grabbed some gains from shorting inside the flag pattern. They are really working this bear flag and are liquidating many short traders along the way. As stated before, this is why you need low leverage to get into position for the big drop. I still expect a head fake outside the trend before the big drop. As we get closer and see real volume return, I will post more updates. Until then, we just watch and stalk for the big drop. I have my shorts waiting to be picked up for the climb back inside the pattern. This is not financial advice!

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We were unable to enter back up into the flag pattern and we have begun moving sideways. This 15 minute 200 dollar green candle went straight to the .5 fib and so far has been unable to break it. Look for volume to increase and either a break to go back towards the bear flag pattern and a possible fake out of the long term down trend OR heavy selling to show up and slam the price down towards the floor finally.

If you kept your leverage low and your liquidation high and you had a decent entry, you should still be in profit or around breakeven while waiting for the next move. I still have sells staggered up to 7.1k in case we get a big short squeeze. Bitfinex is about to undergo a 12 hour maintenance within the next 5 hours or so and tether is rumored to be struggling with it's backing bank looking at closing its doors. Bitfinex and tether are owned by the same company. Combined with the recent ruling that digital currencies are considered securities by the CFTC in U.S. Federal court and we could be looking at the start of the move we have been waiting for. Always combine fundamental analysis with TA in order to be best prepared for anything!

Source for Bitfinex Maintenance timing:
bitfinex.com/posts/286

Primary Source of court ruling that digital currencies are securities by definition:
cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7820-18

Article about Tether's Backing bank problems:
cointelegraph.com/news/bloomberg-puerto-ricos-noble-bank-reportedly-loses-clients-tether-bitfinex-seeks-buyer

Stay safe out there!! We may be finaly getting close to the REAL bottom! Be ready for anything - always use a stop loss and protect your crypto! I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice. It is solely for educational purposes!

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They sure know exactly where that long term down trend line in white is!! Will we get a fake break out or will we get pushed lower as we get squeezed against the 9 months long downtrend? We still don't have the significant heavy volume we want to see, so until we can break out of the down trend and stir up some bulls to take the real heat of the shorts waiting to get in outside the trend line, we are still waiting and watching closely.

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The drop appears to be starting - will we break the floor finally?! Pay close attention to the 5900-6000 level to see if we break with volume. It should be quick after that if that critical support level fails! Be safe out there!

註釋

I noticed in the last pic I had accidentally dragged the white down term trend line and moved it. If you look in the pic before you will see my original position intended had it hit by the last green candle wick. I moved it back to where I intended it to be. This is where it was in all the previous pics before I accidentally dragged it while zooming to get the last one.

As you can see it is holding strong. Let's see if we can go test this floor already!

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If you were looking closely during the last couple of days, you may have noticed that the coinbase drop has been slightly deeper than the Bitfinex one, to a tune of about 100-150 USD. So I decided to pull the same fib setup I've been using on the Bitfinex chart, only on the coinbase one. Pulling from the most recent leg you can see the results below. Take a look:

The drop stopped dead on the 1 fib at 6150. If we break this level to the downside on strong volume, the next big fib support just so happens to be a significant 1.618 fib at the high 5700s area. This is also the strong support in the big time frame that we haven't broken below since coming off of the last ATH at the beginning of the year!! If we break this level on strong volume, we could finally get the real bottom and the 4000-5000 USD area comes into play as the possible bottom area. If the Bitfinex fibs hold true, it could even go as low as 3000 USD.

I will be scaling buys in from 3000-5000 at intervals that I am happy with. I will have exited my short position by around 4000 and if we go lower I will begin to build a long position for the next sideways volatility and/or the reversal. There is no way to tell how long we move sideways at the bottom, so I won't be buying in with all my gains right away. I will start with low 5x leverage and small buys to scale in from 3000-4000 or 4000-5000 depending on when and where we get conformation signs that the bottom is truly in and we are headed back to a bull market after an almost year long correction. Be patient, let the market show you the way. We could still bounce back up a few hundred dollars to square up this recent drop and/or to liquidate over leveraged short traders.

This is not financial advice and I am not an advisor. This is for educational purposes only.

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Can we break the 6150 area 1 fib on solid volume this next week? Eyes on volume and that support area to see if we can start the downward momentum and the fight to finally break the floor!

取消訂單

The chart above is Coinbase (Doesn't have tether)
The chart below is Bitfinex (Does use tether)

If you ever needed proof that something fishy is going on with tether - take a look at the 1,000 different between these two green candle tops. Now the price is separated by around 500 USD across these two exchanges. Is is very possible that the team behind tether is exiting and the difference in price is due to them trying to entice people to sell them their BTC at a slightly inflated price before tether collapses. It might not happen, but we should all be concerned with this very unhealthy move that created and is maintaining a separation of 500 USD across these exchanges. Why would this arbitrage gap not be closing unless the price was being inflated on purpose upon the tether exchange? This is speculation, but something is definitely brewing.

Several of my shorts got picked up on the pump that had been sitting and waiting patiently. Now I am going to take my gains and leave a relatively small short position behind, but it is strongly advised to use extreme caution as this is the volatility that is typical of a 5th wave bottoming process. We could continue to see 1000 USD swings within small amounts of time in both directions before this is over. Be safe and always start with risk first!