Well now BTC is weaker than anticipated. I expected a stronger breakout from the falling wedge, however it seems I overestimated BTC.
The problem is the high longs: It looked as if shorts would increase again, but this is not the case.
Together with the extremely weak breakout, I think that the chances for new lows directly, without bounce from here, are starting to increase.
I cannot put exact percentages out, but my feeling says about 70/30 for dumps/bounce.
Target is around the 2k area.
We shall then see if we get a good bounce. If not, then BTC is indeed headed for 980-1200 USD sometime later this year.
The problem is the high longs: It looked as if shorts would increase again, but this is not the case.
Together with the extremely weak breakout, I think that the chances for new lows directly, without bounce from here, are starting to increase.
I cannot put exact percentages out, but my feeling says about 70/30 for dumps/bounce.
Target is around the 2k area.
We shall then see if we get a good bounce. If not, then BTC is indeed headed for 980-1200 USD sometime later this year.
註釋
On bitstamp, the falling wedge is still intact:Normally, falling wedges mostly break out to the upside, but btc looks so weak, I don't know if it will manage to do so.
註釋
This is crazy, BTC is pushing it to the limit, being in this falling wedge probably until the very last second:註釋
註釋
Now, will the wedge break to the upside or downside? The still high longs favor the downside, the falling wedge however normally being a more bullish sign. Mixed signals, as always. We'll just have to wait for a significant breakout.註釋
Finally the wedge breaking to the upside, or again a failed attempt?註釋
Break to the upside confirmed, the break to the downside has been averted !
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