Bitcoin continues to do the same thing over and over again

2021年11月16日

Bearish divergence with the MACD and RSI resulting in a correction. It's happened twice before and now here we are for the third time. It is my speculation that bitcoin will eventually break the all-time high again and continue on. The weekly chart has been a bit overextended and this pullback was needed. On a macro scale, a 3x from last cycle's all-time high seems a bit underwhelming when there was about a 16x from the 2013 high to 2017 high and a 39x from the 2011 high to the 2013 high. There will still be a drop-off in returns as that fundamentally makes sense as the asset grows in market cap, but I think Bitcoin should be able to put in a 6-10x from its 2017 high.

I will say the frequency of bearish divergence in Bitcoin is bizarre.

2021年11月16日

註釋

I forgot to mention that there was also bullish divergence which took place from May to July. If entities were to collude to manipulate a market, this would be the way to do it. Slightly higher highs or slightly lower lows that give the impression a large breakout or breakdown will occur, but then it doesn't occur, can induce anxiety with retail investors/traders. It could also just be normal market behavior, but regardless, detecting false strength or false weakness is pretty important.