Bear Scenario ==> We could be in a which could bring us down to 4k area.
(1) Historically the shortest retracement period for Bitcoin has been 75 days or 2.5 months. The average retracement is much more proably about 90 days. From 20k to 6k we completed about 60 days, so to say 6k was the bottom set new records to make 60 days the shortest retracemnt period in Bitcoins history.
(2) We can consider the current Bitcoin patter a Parabolic Arc which normally retraces 62%-78% from where the top was. If we drew a from $500 starting point to 20k, then the 6k hit dead center between the .618 and .786, which is the .7 Fib area. Now according to the Parabolic Arc theory we could go as low as 78% which would bring us to $4,700 area.
Link for Parabolic Arc Theory
Bullish Scenario ==> We are hoping to break the descending upper line channel which may bring us out of the .
(1) Although we would exit the area, if we complete a impulse wave from 6k, then we would see a possible retracement back to the Wave 4 area of 10k, which would bring us back into the .
(2) What we need to see is a second impulse wave from the retracement to break us through the 12.5k major .
(3) If we do break through 12.5k area, our next major resistance zones are 15k and then 17.5k to be out of the wood for a Bear Scenario.
(4) The last stance I believe to beat the Bears would be the 17.5k area. This may be a Bull Trap poing where the 17.5k could be a Point B retracement from 6k (which now would be Point A), and then we would start Point C down to the 4k area or the .786 Fib level (if we take the Fib retracement from $500 to 20k).