How bad is BTC going to get in the short term?

Bitcoin looks to have finally moved out of a wedge (red line) that it has been stuck in for the past couple of days. I can imagine some saying it is an obvious flag pole for a bearish trend, and I don't necessarily think that is wrong, but I wonder just how bad this short term retracement is going to be (a lot of calls for 40ish for the .618 Fibonacci retracement)?

What I find interesting is the speed of the breakout (so much that I was able to write this while it is still occurring) and wonder if the orange support trend line I drew is going to hold. If that is the case, I imagine the price will normalize around 45K but only go so far down as 43K.

Here is why I like this possibility:
* It puts us in a downward wedge to finally get out of the descending channel (white lines)
* It keeps us around the .5 Fibonacci retracement lines
* The normalization around 45K would lead to a nice ending trend past the last doji 9 days ago and signal a potential reversal (at least for a short time)
* It sets us up for more patterns that will help with the reversal (for example, breakout out of the descending triangle between orange and white lines, and result in other pattern possibilities, such as a reverse head and shoulders trend, etc.)

I am curious if the support around 43K will hold, but I suppose time will tell as it breaks past 45K and the stops start to trigger downward. That being said, 41K is easily possible and some good buy opportunities I think at both 43K and 41K if I am right, two numbers to definitely keep an eye on short term, with an additional potential to briefly dip below 40K. I for one am curious how tonight and tomorrow morning are going to turn out, but also very curious how the weekly candlestick is going to look as a result of this.