Bitcoin - The Elevated Cycle and the Silence Before Powell.

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⟁ BTC/USD – Bitstamp – (CHART: 1M) – (June 18, 2025).
⟐ Analysis Price: $104,044.00
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⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (1M):

▦ EMA90 – ($39,909.00):
∴ Rising steadily, serving as long-cycle structural support since 2020;
∴ Price remains well above this average, with no signs of downward pressure;
∴ The positive slope confirms ongoing bullish macro structure.
✴️ Conclusion: EMA90 holds the foundational base of the long-term uptrend with ample buffer.
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▦ SMA50 – ($48,924.00):
∴ Key axis of mid-to-long-term structure, validated by multiple touches during 2022–2023;
∴ Current price distance suggests technical room for retracement;
∴ Still rising with no sign of flattening or decay.
✴️ Conclusion: SMA50 confirms trend integrity, though overextension calls for caution.
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▦ Ichimoku (Kumo & Lines) – (85,434 | 68,378 | 104,044 | 76,906 | 63,740):
∴ Price remains well above the Kumo cloud – full bullish confirmation;
∴ Tenkan and Kijun are aligned in bullish configuration, widely spread;
∴ Future cloud projects bullish momentum continuation.
✴️ Conclusion: Complete Ichimoku structure signals dominant cycle strength.
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▦ MACD (12,26,9) – (2,344 | 16,426 | 14,083):
∴ MACD line remains above the signal, maintaining a monthly buy signal;
∴ Histogram shows mild expansion, but slower than previous bull cycles;
∴ Momentum is positive but decelerating.
✴️ Conclusion: Momentum remains intact, but peak cycle force may have passed.
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▦ RSI (14) – (68.82 | MA: 67.35):
∴ RSI approaching overbought threshold, hovering near 70;
∴ Momentum is firm but shows resistance to further extension;
∴ Historical comparison to 2020 suggests possible ignition or exhaustion point.
✴️ Conclusion: RSI signals potential tension zone - breakout or reversal ahead.
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▦ VPT (14,8) – (100):
∴ Volume Price Trend has plateaued at its max threshold;
∴ Lack of new highs despite price advance suggests fading directional volume;
∴ Often a signal of accumulation slowdown or redistribution.
✴️ Conclusion: Buyer strength may be waning beneath the surface.
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🜎 Strategic Insight - Technical Oracle:
∴ Market structure remains bullish across all core indicators;
∴ Overextension from key moving averages and flattening momentum call for tactical caution;
∴ Any macroeconomic pressure could trigger a local top, without compromising the broader trend.

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∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant):

▦ Realized Price & LTH – ($47,000):
∴ Market price is well above the realized price baseline;
∴ Indicates majority of holders are in profit — structurally bullish;
∴ However, this also creates a risk of profit-taking if confidence drops.
✴️ Conclusion: Strong support floor, but latent pressure exists.
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▦ SOPR - (Spent Output Profit Ratio) – (1.013):
∴ Above 1 means active profit-taking;
∴ Downward slope shows this is starting to cool;
∴ Critical to monitor for a break below 1 - would shift dynamic.
✴️ Conclusion: Still healthy, but at the edge of distribution risk.
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▦ NUPL – (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) - (0.554):
∴ Unrealized profit remains dominant;
∴ Readings above 0.5 historically precede consolidation or pullbacks;
∴ Still distant from euphoric tops, but entering alert zone.
✴️ Conclusion: Market still in profit expansion phase - but under surveillance.
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▦ MVRV - (STH vs LTH) – (STH: 1.0 | LTH: 3.1 | Global: 2.2):
∴ STH neutral, LTH moderately elevated but not excessive;
∴ Market is mature, but not overheated;
∴ Still in a zone that supports further upside with restraint.
✴️ Conclusion: Healthy balance between holders - no imminent top confirmed.
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▦ CME Futures Open Interest:
∴ Sharp rise in open interest across expiry horizons;
∴ Sign of speculative leverage building;
∴ Historically correlates with volatile price action post-FOMC or macro events.
✴️ Conclusion: Liquidity pressure is rising - extreme caution warranted.
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🜎 Strategic Insight - On-Chain Oracle:
∴ On-chain structure mirrors technical signals - strong trend, but cautious undertone;
∴ No major signs of reversal, but profit saturation could act as gravity if macro shocks occur;
∴ Market is exposed, not exhausted.

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⧉ III. Contextvs Macro–Geopoliticvs – Interflux Economicus:

▦ Fed Chair Powell (Upcoming):
∴ Powell speaks today (June 18); core expectation is rate hold;
∴ Market bracing for hawkish tone: fewer projected cuts and emphasis on inflation resilience;
∴ Historically, Bitcoin has reacted with -2% to -5% dips to hawkish FOMC tone.
✴️ Conclusion: Macro tension peak. Powell’s tone may dictate the next 30-day candle.

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⚜️ 𝟙⟠ Magister Arcanvm – Vox Primordialis!
⚖️ Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy.
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⌘ Codicillus Silentii – Strategic Note:
∴ The technicals are strong, the on-chain base is stable, and the macro setup is explosive;
∴ This is a tension point, not a resolution point - silence before decision;
∴ Precision now is not found in action, but in observation.

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⌘ Market Status:
✴️ Position: "Cautiously Bullish."
✴️ Tactical Mode: Observation Priority – No immediate entry without Powell clarity.

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註釋

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⧉ Powell’s Statements – Fed Decision (June 18, 2025).

∴ The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged, between 4.25% and 4.50%, for the fourth consecutive meeting.

∴ Powell emphasized a data-dependent stance, stating that future decisions will be guided by evolving economic indicators - particularly inflation, the labor market, and geopolitical risks.

∴ The Fed Chair warned about the effects of tensions in the Middle East and potential trade tariffs - notably with China - classifying them as material risks to price stability and economic growth.

The revised dot plot indicates only one rate cut expected in 2025, down from two previously projected - in other words, the tone of the speech was hawkish.

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