But this $15k down to $2k crash may come with other unexpected news...so whether that's the IRS getting their way and getting access to Coinbase's customer data, or maybe the veil gets lifted on this whole Tether-Bitfinex fiasco...I don't know.
All I know is I'll be short BTC and crypto by mid-December for awhile thereafter.
Overall, I'm done trading long. Will consider shorts in a week or 2. That's not to say we won't really HUGE still, it's just to say that the risk involved due to clear prevalent technical issues at exchanges makes the risk not worth the reward.
Will consider shorts into Saturday and Sunday. Definitely not long here though.
But if on the other hand those levels hold ($13k and $430) on any decline over the next 24-48 hours I'd expect a very slow tick back up to potentially 1 more higher-high (or nearly higher-high) and that is the point at which to short.
I'm opening light short positions now to play any drawdown over the next 24-48 hours regardless of if this is just a small blip down or a crash. We'll see.
Been trading, and holding, Crypto since 2014 and I've never seen so many bull'ed up (and new and unfortunately clueless) folks in Crypto trying to become instantly rich. Plus Wall Street hates Bitcoin...they will use the CME launch to absolutely (and publicly) squash bitcoin's price in order to scare the hell out of every retail granny and orphan out there who's considering bitcoin now after this monster rally. And yes I realize that CME is cash-based, however it is my opinion that this entire rally from the past month, from when the CME was announced, has been the work of many Wall Street traders coming together to pump the price at the cost of many millions in fiat in order to make many more more millions when they short futures and dump their coins. We'll see...
If the U.S. Government finally has stipulated plain and simple that Crypto exchanges are taxed as taxable events upon any kind of exchange (ie BTC to ETH), with capital gains due upon such an exchange, the effects are essentially tax bills will soon be due for 1,000's of traders. Hence I'm expecting a rush into USD, and out of all things Crypto, as traders cautiously prepare themselves for potential capital gains tax bills.
I remain short. Target is $4k.
I will note though that it's mighty 'interesting' that GDAX happened to shut down major parts of their trading platform at very key points in time, which might have averted disastrous crashing scenarios. The first major point was when BCH trading was announced and almost immediately BTC crashed down to $10k while BCH crashed up. The second major point came when the news that crypto-to-crypto (see above on December 21) was a taxable event, Coinbase was down for hours. Again, very key and bearish moment which would have easily caused BTC to plunge in a reactionary manner however it couldn't because Coinbase/GDAX was inaccessible. Overall this does not look to be over with however the pace of declining doesn't look like it'll be anywhere near what was seen over the prior 2 weeks.
Overall this might be a bear market here however I wouldn't expect much downside pressure but more a sideways, slow downward trickle. I don't trade bear markets, so I'm out of BTC but will take on ETH on any decline to the $600 level.
Folks, this is when massive tops occur in assets throughout the history of humanity. Just because it's new technology doesn't make it different this time.
We are witnessing the top of a multi-year-long bear market which will likely annihilate these recent Crypto noobs. All the signs are here in front of us... I suspect price across Crypto will soon start to show that the top is/was here.
Put simply, the crash didn't occur and instead it was a soft landing... That never happens in markets that don't immediately jump back on the rally train.
I'm expecting new highs now at least, within 6 months.