Jesse_Livermore

BTCUSD Up to $15k then down to $2k...ya, that's right, $2k

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
Looks like BTC             has more to go here in fact. This could be one hell of an insane blowoff top by the looks of it. The bots that before were jacking price higher and higher have been accumulating quietly here and volume is starting to dry up dramatically now. I think the area of $13k-$20k could be a likely target within 2 weeks however the CME futures in mid-December looks to completely squash this parabolic rally. I am calling for $2k as a crash within weeks of hitting these high levels. These futures traders have lots of ammo and can easily squash the cash-settled markets they'll be trading in and I suspect they've even loaded up some actual BTC             , which they'll dispose of to kill price, just to get the fear going into some of these hodlers who have held their BTC             all year.
But this $15k down to $2k crash may come with other unexpected news...so whether that's the IRS             getting their way and getting access to Coinbase's customer data, or maybe the veil gets lifted on this whole Tether-Bitfinex fiasco...I don't know.
All I know is I'll be short BTC             and crypto by mid-December for awhile thereafter.
評論: Going to stick my neck out on this one and say that it looks like Monday, the 27th, which will see BTC breaking to ATH and starting off this final rally.
評論: Eerily accurate so far. Might be due for a short-term (24-72 hour) pullback though me thinks. ETH might see another ATH rally when that occurs.
評論: Both ETH and BTC saw multiple new ATH's, however I think it's clear that the existing exchange can't handle the loads of all these traders. GDAX went down for like 15 minutes just 2 hours ago. That is a terrible scenario to be caught long and any stop is likely going to be triggered when it all comes back up when panicky traders exit at once.
Overall, I'm done trading long. Will consider shorts in a week or 2. That's not to say we won't really HUGE still, it's just to say that the risk involved due to clear prevalent technical issues at exchanges makes the risk not worth the reward.
評論: Looks like it's finally getting well into the "stupid fast", final rallying stage full of FOMO-trading grannies and orphans. This definitely appears to be setting up a massive 'sell the news' crash event when the CBOE's Bitcoin futures go live Sunday night.
Will consider shorts into Saturday and Sunday. Definitely not long here though.
評論: Not short yet; actually just took longs. Target $18k, stop $12k. High risk trade, only giving it 24 hours. Could be the last hurrah, or possibly the second to last hurrah. We'll see.
評論: I'm out of this long for now at $16.4k, although I suspect this might go a little higher...I don't see it going beyond the previous highs of last week by more than $1k and I will be shorting in the $17.5k-$18.5k region...target open but $7k might be a good initial target to reach within 2 weeks from now...followed by $4k shortly thereafter....and then lower prices potentially into early-2018.
評論: We actually might have very well seen the top in both BTC and ETH within the past 12 hours. If ETH breaks below $430 and BTC breaks below $13k then watch out for a crash to at least $7k for BTC and upper-$300's at least for ETH within days.
But if on the other hand those levels hold ($13k and $430) on any decline over the next 24-48 hours I'd expect a very slow tick back up to potentially 1 more higher-high (or nearly higher-high) and that is the point at which to short.
I'm opening light short positions now to play any drawdown over the next 24-48 hours regardless of if this is just a small blip down or a crash. We'll see.
評論: Fully short BTC; stop at $18.5k; initial target $13.5k. ETH has a lot of volatility attached to it here so I'm not playing that one.
評論: Alright. Do-or-die time for this trade..... I'm raising my stop to about $19k now just to be sure I don't get initially whipsawed and I'm dropping down initial cover target to $9k.
Been trading, and holding, Crypto since 2014 and I've never seen so many bull'ed up (and new and unfortunately clueless) folks in Crypto trying to become instantly rich. Plus Wall Street hates Bitcoin...they will use the CME launch to absolutely (and publicly) squash bitcoin's price in order to scare the hell out of every retail granny and orphan out there who's considering bitcoin now after this monster rally. And yes I realize that CME is cash-based, however it is my opinion that this entire rally from the past month, from when the CME was announced, has been the work of many Wall Street traders coming together to pump the price at the cost of many millions in fiat in order to make many more more millions when they short futures and dump their coins. We'll see...
交易結束:達到停損點: Watching from the sidelines for the next 24 hours. This thing is going to do what it's going to do. I'll play a break of this rising line, currently at $17.5k and rising:
交易進行: Re-shorting only 1/3 position so far. Target $9k. Wide stop for now at $23k. Will be adding more shorts likely just before 5 pm cst today and then again just after 5 pm cst after the CME futures go live.
交易進行: Took on another 1/3 of my short here at $19k. Lowering stop to $21.5k. BTC's reaction here is telling that they are NOT intending on continuing this ridiculous rally.
交易進行: Last 1/3 taken here at $18.9k. Let's do this.
評論: Alright, lower-lows now could spark a serious cascading collapse in price by -50%. I'm watching for really bad news over the next 12 hours.
評論: Volume says this isn't yet THE big drop. Unbelievable, yes, but THE big drop should have the largest single-day volume in many months by multiple factors... So I continue to wait and watch, short.
評論: Awe yes, Coinbase adding BCH would be really bad news for BTC. There you go. We'll see the full reaction play out over the coming hours. Could get ugly and only get uglier over the next week. Not kidding when I say $5k, $4k, $3k and such are legit targets.
評論: Additional bad news: https://www.ethnews.com/tax-cut-bill-to-require-taxation-of-cryptocurrency-trades-in-us
If the U.S. Government finally has stipulated plain and simple that Crypto exchanges are taxed as taxable events upon any kind of exchange (ie BTC to ETH), with capital gains due upon such an exchange, the effects are essentially tax bills will soon be due for 1,000's of traders. Hence I'm expecting a rush into USD, and out of all things Crypto, as traders cautiously prepare themselves for potential capital gains tax bills.
評論: Not sure we've seen the worst, or anywhere close to the worst yet. Volume spiked but is drying up again. We might do a 24-48 hour hold period where we overall go sideways (big range up/down though).
I remain short. Target is $4k.
評論: We're almost at a key juncture. I'm thinking over the next 6-12 hours we have a minor decline back to $13k or so and then a small bounce up to $14-15k again, HOWEVER that will be the key juncture in that we could either continue going overall sideways for the next week or more followed by slowed-down decline to lower-lows, OR price collapses yet again to the lower-lows of $4k.
評論: ...And we're at the key juncture. It's looking bad for bulls, in my opinion. I'm increasing my shorts; stop at $16k; target at $4k.
交易結束:達到停損點: Stopped out at $16k. About to re-enter at a lower-risk entry point though at $16.3k. Target $10k initially.
交易進行: Short again from $16.3k on down to here at $15k. Short and medium term charts have head-and-shoulders patterns all over the place aiming for $13k today and then $10k or below, within a week. Overall in retrospect it looks like the fractal was far bearish than what actually occurred, which is impressive given that bulls could essentially fend off what was essentially a mega-crash in the making.
I will note though that it's mighty 'interesting' that GDAX happened to shut down major parts of their trading platform at very key points in time, which might have averted disastrous crashing scenarios. The first major point was when BCH trading was announced and almost immediately BTC crashed down to $10k while BCH crashed up. The second major point came when the news that crypto-to-crypto (see above on December 21) was a taxable event, Coinbase was down for hours. Again, very key and bearish moment which would have easily caused BTC to plunge in a reactionary manner however it couldn't because Coinbase/GDAX was inaccessible. Overall this does not look to be over with however the pace of declining doesn't look like it'll be anywhere near what was seen over the prior 2 weeks.
手動結束交易: I'm out at $13.8k... This market just is NOT feeling like giving into downside pressure. The setups keep looking amazing on the short side but then just fizzle. The same was happening weeks ago as it kept getting to what seemed like topping out patterns which then kept breaking out higher.
Overall this might be a bear market here however I wouldn't expect much downside pressure but more a sideways, slow downward trickle. I don't trade bear markets, so I'm out of BTC but will take on ETH on any decline to the $600 level.
評論: Quick comment on general societal sentiment here... This week my coworkers, who are marketing department folks, were chatting about Bitcoins massive run-up and how amazing it had been. And then tonight my own wife and if I own Ripple because her friends were talking about it and its massive run-up. Additionally there are direct correlations between cheaper price coins now seeing relatively larger up-movement than higher-priced coins, as noobs move into lower-low priced coins thinking that holding a ton of them will make them richer if they become 'the next Bitcoin/Ethereum'.

Folks, this is when massive tops occur in assets throughout the history of humanity. Just because it's new technology doesn't make it different this time.
We are witnessing the top of a multi-year-long bear market which will likely annihilate these recent Crypto noobs. All the signs are here in front of us... I suspect price across Crypto will soon start to show that the top is/was here.
Good luck.
手動結束交易: Closing this one out now. Looking back it appears as though there was some serious buying of BTC going on during the entire ride down.
Put simply, the crash didn't occur and instead it was a soft landing... That never happens in markets that don't immediately jump back on the rally train.

I'm expecting new highs now at least, within 6 months.
So, Jesse, with the most respect, salvo a black swan, do you still think we will be back at $2k after/if this current run crosses back above $10k?
回覆
@gaia, hard to say. This tether unwinding is a slow-motion thing it seems. We could very well trickle down to that level when all's said and done. I actually think we would have crashed to those levels had tether printing not saved the markets in a sense. I'm personally still sitting on a pile of cash though, waiting to start dollar cost averaging into long-term positions in ETH.
回覆
gaia Jesse_Livermore
@Jesse_Livermore, Gotcha. BTW I just realized that the other Jesse Livermore was born in 1877. We have chatted before on coinfund :)
回覆
looks like it's happening now.... these whales dump on christmas day and on new years day. what assholes
回覆
Happy new year J!
回覆
Jesse_Livermore chenghtmark
@chenghtmark, right back at you!
回覆
what exchange do you use to short bitcoin?
回覆
@yoonster8, BitMex.
回覆
yoonster8 Jesse_Livermore
@Jesse_Livermore, thanks mate
回覆
Really 4k? Would be crazy
回覆
ZH 繁體中文
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
AR العربية
HE עברית
首頁 股票篩選器 外匯篩選器 加密貨幣篩選器 全球財經日曆 如何運作 圖表功能 網站規則 版主 網站 & 經紀商解決方案 小工具 圖表庫 功能請求 部落格 & 新聞 常見問題 幫助 & 維基 推特
概述 個人檔案設定 帳戶和帳單 我的支援工單 聯絡客服 發表的想法 粉絲 正在關注 私人訊息 在線聊天 登出