The blue line represents the BTC-chart from end of may to june. The current trend follows the old trend very closely, so keep an eye on it!
This chart is based on an older private idea I published two weeks ago. I link it for you down below.
Picture of end may - june:
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You can clearly see the ascending wedge which is probably going to break the upward trend. I created this picture yesterday before the first Elliot triangle wave formed. Now it is formed, we broke the ascending triangle and I drew some possible outcomes.
Orange: We break out of the ascending wedge to confirm the upward trend. From there we can either go up or as shown above the try might fail and therefore start the short term bear market.
Red: We don't break up out of the ascending and start the short term bear market to sub $3000
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We are well on track. Next target: $4450.
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Possible outcome for the next two weeks.
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You can follow the chart from above in this private idea:
Wave 5 then ABC - I agree. It could go up more, first. Normally a random last minute surge just as it looks about to fail. followed by huge drop 3-4 days later. Currently on thin volume imho. Check out the buy Vs sell limit orders... Wall of sellers and thin line of buyers.
Those numbers seem inline with typical correction.
SpandyAndy
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Wait for $4700 - $5200 range to short. Continue to take profit for now. Thanks for sharing!
strumz
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@SpandyAndy, I totally agree with you. I'm sure we're going to see more than this idea suggests. Just thought it was very interesting and might give an idea of future prices.
sh65
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agreed
buzbooz
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you cant compare it to june and july, price fall at that time because of Fork drama.
just search for the ideas for the last 2 weeks
329472374 ideas about btc going to 1880 btc going to 2000
and it never happen because you are forcing the pattern into your brain
bitcoin is going up and its not going down below 4500
strumz
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@buzbooz, I understand your point and I don't want to say that this is an infallible idea! It's just something I noticed and wanted to share. Doesn't mean I would bet all my BTC on it. ;-)
ilia19
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i see not correct, 4600 this moment
strumz
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@ilia19, We'll see. The basic trend is correct, event tough BTC isn't following the line very closely. Downtrend from the red arrow ($4900) A, following a small break with price regaining some ground ($4600) B, and the last step is the final breakdown C. If you look at August 15th, the difference between the last trend and the actual price is $700! We see a difference right now of $600... so we'll see. The basic trend is correct (for now).
nole_89
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Barring some unforeseen problems with the November hard fork I don't see it going below 3000. From now til late September it won't go below 4400, barring unforeseen bad news. It will indeed correct, but the correction will be above 4000. There will have to be a major bad news like an event such as a bad coinbase hack or a major bug in segwit for it to crash like you are suggesting. Could happen, as it has happened before, but odds are against it.
strumz
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@nole_89, The blue line just represents BTC from end of may and parts of june. I don't really want to say that (sub) $3000 will happen. I'm just giving you a comparison to show you how it worked out in the past. If you look at earlier dates in this chart, you can see some big differences between june and now, sometimes differences of $500! In the end, the correction will happen, just like you said. Nevertheless, I am very happy to get some cheap coins. ;-)
Those numbers seem inline with typical correction.