$BTC Critical Support Retest at 50WMA - Must Read!

50WMA is a CRITICAL SUPPORT to watch for ₿itcoin.

Historically, if BTC closes below it for more than one week, it signals the beginning of the BEAR MARKET.

We’ve only seen BTC close beneath the 50WMA once in its history during a Post-Halving year, and that was in 2021, but then rallied to a new ATH.

People often ask me what would invalidate my bull market thesis;
this is one of them.

I’ll be watching this support very closely, and if BTC closes below it for more than 2 weeks, i’m probably selling a good portion of my stack until we get more clarity in the market.

However, this could very well have been the bottom of this correction.

BTC is known to have a big Q1 drawdown in Post-Halving years.

2013 was a massive -82% correction over a week.

2017 gave us two.
January -34% over 7 days.
March -33% over 14 days.

January 2021 gave us -31% over 14 days.

The current correction we’ve seen with BTC has been the longest over 35 days with -28%.

$75k would be a -31% correction, which would line up perfectly with the previous cycle.

That’s the line in the sand for me.

If we did see the bottom with this 28% correction, that would line up with the diminishing return theory.