High probability for a move up exhaustion on BTC

2022年7月20日

I had a SHORT setup flagged few weeks ago that did bring us down to last support and at the time I did not pay enough attention to similarities in wave movements with previous zones. As you can see (and you can also find my on-chain analysis in latest the newsletter - link in signature) we are looking to have same setup as end of Jan to early Apr with final wave slowing down to completion. Of course there is always a possibility that there will be no new leg down, either way Bitcoin should retest the 21-22k area first and even then we should keep a close eye on macro events (FOMC, GDP in July, CPI and employment data in Aug/Sept to name the few) and any potential crypto related developments (Mt Gox potential sell of their BTC holdings in Aug, further push of ETH PoS merge etc.).

Considering a lot of the data coming from on-chain confirming we are not out of the bear market lows and macro situation not getting any better, I am still putting more weight on Bitcoin's price falling in the coming months. Whether it can make new lows we will see, but I would expect this wave up soon to fade. For anyone looking to short again, wait for first sign of red Daily candles and oscillators to start turning from the overbought area some already flag (lower timeframes been flagging overbought for a day or two already).

2022年11月11日

交易結束：目標達成