Bitcoin mid-term thesis.

2023年5月10日

I'm fairly new to this so take it with a grain of salt. Just a simple guess where I think BTC is going based on a daily trend line, the 200/d SMA and point of control. I find it interesting given how the 200/d sma and that macro trend line up almost perfectly. As well, the 200/d sma seems to be a key MA in the history of btc as it tends to gravitate to and recently oscillate around it. Of course as time goes on and momentum wanes, longer MAs will likely take over governance.

2023年5月12日

註釋

I should have extended the time frame for when I expect it to reach the target. Of course it will bounce along the way. Such as, currently BTC may reject from the bearish control zone (40 RSI) causing a run up to the bullish control zone (65 RSI) and if my thesis is correct, reject the bullish control zone into a capitulation to sub 30 RSI into the grey box sometime this summer. Not by June as the box suggests. It's possible but unlikely. I do think the 200/d sma trend holds. I've noticed when major trend lines line up with major MAs, they tend to hold by a very high percentage.