看多

Was There EVER A Bear market? (BTC)

已更新

The past few weeks, I've been the most confused about the market than I have been since I started posting analysis. I was cautiously bullish when Bitcoin was still in the mid-low 3K zone, while many other people were still bearish. I projected the rise to and beyond 6K, but I honestly didn't expect it would happen this quickly. I also expected to begin switching back into Bitcoin with some of my alts once alts reached higher points on their ratios. This never happened. instead, altcoins experienced a secondary selloff. Some even hit new lows on their ratios. Interestingly, some altcoin charts are beginning to look a bit like Bitcoin's previous 2014-2015 bottom, while Bitcoin's bottom has diverged. Additionally, the whole market (especially ETH) is really resembling the recovery of many internet stocks after the dotcom bubble pop bottomed out. Linked at the bottom is an ETH/AMZN comparison I did a little while ago.

In any case, this is just an observational post. This isn't a trade setup. I've clearly been wrong a number of times recently in certain assumptions, but have overall been correct in assuming that the market would move higher, even when we were at much lower levels. Here is my recent total crypto market cap analysis, where I projected a move towards 300 Billion. We are currently facing the 200 Billion resistance:

We're not completely out of the woods. I think we could be on the verge of an enormous rally IF certain conditions are met (specifically with altcoins). First of all, Bitcoin needs to consolidate here or get back above the major resistance it's currently hitting (light blue trendline on my chart). That was one of my original targets for this move up (you can see that in videos and previous posts). I DID post a bearish idea for Bitcoin recently, but that was before 6.4K was broken. Now things are looking much more bullish. My recent bearish ideas were presenting possibilities, based on what I was seeing. Yes, I've done more flip-flopping than usual, but I think it's also important to be able to remain nimble in a market like this.

Here's the total crypto market cap:

Here is is without Bitcoin. This is the one I was worried about, but amazingly this trendline continues to hold. I guess one shouldn't fight the trend that's been there since 2015:

If coins like ADA can get back above their major broken supports, that would be a serious sign of strength for alts:

Linked at bottom are the Bitcoin posts where I called these big moves well in advance. Now it's new territory, and I have to prove to myself that I can continue to accurately analyze this market. A lot of people have been confused recently, and rightly so. Goes to show you that often TA doesn't work, and the market can really mess with your head. The bears almost got me the other day.

Let's see where this goes. If the 7K resistance is surpassed, 7.4-7.5K would be next...followed by 9.9K-10K. Why do I say 10K? It's the top of the previous bullish channel. The last time we entered the channel, we went straight through it (to the downside). IF we break back into the channel, it's possible that one can say that there was never really a "bear market" at all, as it would mean that the long term bullish trend remains intact. So far, that seems to be the case for the market overall. It's in a very strong uptrend. However, we are currently at a VERY important pivot area, so caution is needed. Bitcoin can EASILY correct from the current level.

This is not financial advice. Good luck out there!

-Victor Cobra

註釋

Welp, we're officially back in the long term bullish channel! It'll be really interesting to see what happens next. Can we close a daily candle above it?

註釋

AAAAALMOST made it to my next target. I posed this as a possibility when Bitcoin was still at 5K.

註釋

The target at 7500 has been reached, and rejected hard. Let's see if the yellow scenario can occur. This would mean a drop all the way back to the bottom uptrend line.

註釋

It would be very interesting if we found support back inside the blue channel (currently close to testing it). It's around the 6800 level, which has been major resistance for a long time:

註釋

Also obviously the title of this analysis is a bit over the top, since we have indeed been in a bear market, in terms of the traditional use of the term (someone on Reddit corrected me here). But the essence of the post is that Bitcoin has been LONG TERM bullish so far. So the need to declare that its in a bearish trend is often short-lived.