BTC:USD DAILY UPDATE (day 139)
I have been spending less and less time looking at the 4 hour chart and have removed that part from the title. Moving forward the daily update will primarily focus on the 1w, 3d and daily charts.
Outlook
1-4 weeks: bullish
4 weeks - 12 months: bearish
> 1 year: super bullish
Projected Bottom: $4,975 = 20% likelihood | $4,000 - $4,200 = 30% | $2,500 = 15% | $1,000 - $1,250 = 35%
Yesterday’s analysis: Weekly 9 on the TD' Sequential and red 6 on the daily. Expecting rebound to $7,500 - $8,000.
Patterns: Inverse h&s with $6,800 neckline on daily.
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,600 - $6,800 S: $6,500 resistance becomes support? $6,200 is strong support.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Broke out of bear channel and then immediately pulled back. Wick on top of the daily candle is ugly and tells me that we will likely break down 21,000 support in the next couple days.
Funding Rates: Longs will receive 0.0117%
EMA’s (12 & 26): Bullish 1h, 2h, 3h, 4h, 6h and currently crossing on 12h.
MA crossovers (50 & 200): just made bearish crossover on 4h. 1h posturing for bullish cross.
FIB’s: 0.236 at $5,817 and 0.382 at $8,476
Candlestick analysis: 4h hanging man.
Ichimoku Cloud: D: Full bearish | Tenkan resistance turned to support | Kijun at $7,184 | Cloud at $7,494. 3d: Tenkan at $7,200. W: Tenkan at $8,698
TD' Sequential: D: Price flip after Red 6 major resistance at $7,700 | 3D: Price Flip after red 1 | W: Green 1 following red 9, major support at $6,069
Visible Range: Resistance stacked from $6,600 to $9,000. Large gap from $4,300 - $5,900 that I expect to get filled before bear market is over.
50 & 200 MA’s (calculate % difference): 50: -1.46% 200: -35.22%
BTC Price Spreadsheet: Price is currently +3.87% over the past 30 days. First time that has been positive since 5/14.
Bollinger Bands: W: MA is at $7,722 and angling down 3D: MA is at $6,885 and will be apart of resistance cluster D: MA is starting to angle upward for the first time since 4/17. Top band is at $6,837 and will be apart of resistance cluster
Trendline: Recently broke down trend. Could draw bull trend by connecting 6/28 and 7/15
Daily Trend: Bullish since 7/12
Fractals: DOWN: $6.074 UP: $6,842
On Balance Volume: Supported 1,349,811 and is bouncing in line with the price
Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: RSI back above 50. Stoch at 43. MA’s are starting to show buy signals after showing ‘sell’ across the board.
Conclusion: There will be heavy resistance at $6,800. I expect that to slow down this rally, but not for long. Still expecting $7,500 - $8,000 to be the top of this dead cat bounce. If you are not in a position then I would wait to buy the breakout of $6,850 which would confirm the inverse h&s on the daily chart. I am long ETH:USD due to a more favorable risk:reward ratio.
Outlook
1-4 weeks: bullish
4 weeks - 12 months: bearish
> 1 year: super bullish
Projected Bottom: $4,975 = 20% likelihood | $4,000 - $4,200 = 30% | $2,500 = 15% | $1,000 - $1,250 = 35%
Yesterday’s analysis: Weekly 9 on the TD' Sequential and red 6 on the daily. Expecting rebound to $7,500 - $8,000.
Patterns: Inverse h&s with $6,800 neckline on daily.
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,600 - $6,800 S: $6,500 resistance becomes support? $6,200 is strong support.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Broke out of bear channel and then immediately pulled back. Wick on top of the daily candle is ugly and tells me that we will likely break down 21,000 support in the next couple days.
Funding Rates: Longs will receive 0.0117%
EMA’s (12 & 26): Bullish 1h, 2h, 3h, 4h, 6h and currently crossing on 12h.
MA crossovers (50 & 200): just made bearish crossover on 4h. 1h posturing for bullish cross.
FIB’s: 0.236 at $5,817 and 0.382 at $8,476
Candlestick analysis: 4h hanging man.
Ichimoku Cloud: D: Full bearish | Tenkan resistance turned to support | Kijun at $7,184 | Cloud at $7,494. 3d: Tenkan at $7,200. W: Tenkan at $8,698
TD' Sequential: D: Price flip after Red 6 major resistance at $7,700 | 3D: Price Flip after red 1 | W: Green 1 following red 9, major support at $6,069
Visible Range: Resistance stacked from $6,600 to $9,000. Large gap from $4,300 - $5,900 that I expect to get filled before bear market is over.
50 & 200 MA’s (calculate % difference): 50: -1.46% 200: -35.22%
BTC Price Spreadsheet: Price is currently +3.87% over the past 30 days. First time that has been positive since 5/14.
Bollinger Bands: W: MA is at $7,722 and angling down 3D: MA is at $6,885 and will be apart of resistance cluster D: MA is starting to angle upward for the first time since 4/17. Top band is at $6,837 and will be apart of resistance cluster
Trendline: Recently broke down trend. Could draw bull trend by connecting 6/28 and 7/15
Daily Trend: Bullish since 7/12
Fractals: DOWN: $6.074 UP: $6,842
On Balance Volume: Supported 1,349,811 and is bouncing in line with the price
Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: RSI back above 50. Stoch at 43. MA’s are starting to show buy signals after showing ‘sell’ across the board.
Conclusion: There will be heavy resistance at $6,800. I expect that to slow down this rally, but not for long. Still expecting $7,500 - $8,000 to be the top of this dead cat bounce. If you are not in a position then I would wait to buy the breakout of $6,850 which would confirm the inverse h&s on the daily chart. I am long ETH:USD due to a more favorable risk:reward ratio.
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