Bitcoin (BTC): Whats happening?

5月1日

Let's take a closer look at the Bitcoin chart, using a three-day timeframe. Here's the scenario we're observing: we've developed a significant bearish divergence. Additionally, Bitcoin is currently in a short but valid sideways phase, indicating an impending decision on direction—upward or downward break is expected in the coming weeks.

Our analysis leans towards anticipating a Wave 4 correction. We suspect that it hasn't completed at the 23.6% level since, given the strong upward momentum previously observed.

A deeper decline might be necessary before attempting to reach levels like $80,000, $85,000, or even $90,000. Nonetheless, we generally don't expect Bitcoin to surpass $100,000 in this cycle.

Concerning potential downturns, if Bitcoin falls below the $49,500 mark (50% retracement level), we foresee possible support between $44,000 and $41,600, marking our worst-case scenario for this phase. The mega worst case would involve a drop to $31,000, which, while not impossible, is highly improbable under current conditions and thus unrealistic to expect.



On the daily chart, the situation becomes a bit clearer after our previous analysis at $40,000. Since then, we've reached a new all-time high of $73,800 but have not regained our former strength, presenting the possibility that Wave (4) may have already concluded. There's also a chance that prices might dip again, and for this scenario, we plan to place a limit order at $55,236, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss just below the 50% level.
If you're considering this setup purely for spot buys with a long-term hold strategy, you might opt to set another limit at the worst case scenario.

We anticipate that the price should hold around $48,000. If it falls further, we'd consider secondary entries at around $40,000 and a third potential entry at $31,000.

Depending on where the turnaround occurs, we expect the subsequent rise for Wave (5) and the overarching Wave I to reach between $78,000 and $88,000.

5月12日

註釋

In the current scenario for Bitcoin, we remain open to the possibility of further declines, as our limit order at $55,200 was missed by just over $1,000—a narrow margin of about 2%. This miss prevented the order from being executed. Although we observed a V-shaped recovery, which could indicate upcoming strength, a further dip is still within the realm of possibilities.

Therefore, the existing limit order setup remains in place, along with the targets and stop-loss levels discussed in our last market report on Bitcoin.

This allows us to stay prepared for potential downward movements while also ready to capitalize on upward trends if they materialize.