BTCUSD Longterm Parabolic Trend line

2018年4月22日

This is my projection for bitcoin using the weekly chart of Bitstamp against USD. Curved parabola lines are derived from what we know until today. Future of course gives more data points and can update this overall. This scenario explains how McAfee may have come up with his idea of 1 million dollar bitcoin before 2020. This projection says it could be up to about 1.4m by then. The gray trend lines rising within the parabola represent growing adoption or on a more basic level mass HODLing. Adoption = Network Effect = Plentiful use cases. For now the main use case is to HODL and speculate -- using as a store of value. Growing adoption / network effect equals rising within the parabola at an angle of incline as scarcity kicks in and more are HODLing. The trend line is broken with an event which breaks network effect. Mt. Gox in 2014 was such a moment to break the euphoria trend line. Broken adoption trend = trend down towards bottom of parabola or "bear market" for a certain amount of time. My scenario does not predict a major event between now and 2020. Assuming no negative event. Assuming growing adoption. Assuming mass HODLing (or at least use cases that keep bitcoin in major circulation changing hands a lot). Around 2021 as the trend line approaches the top of the parabola, it does start to get interesting. One could surmise that something might happen to change the trend. Not necessarily huge drop to bottom of parabola but something different from what we can see as of now.