Fasten your belts we finally entered into consolidation market with some ups and downs along the way.
To start I do not (yet) think we are in a bear market. This drop was necessary and long time coming after the slow grind on weak volumes and strong sell pressure coming from the books.
Something I didn't cover in the video is the volumes on CME and BAKKT as well other popular futures platforms that spiked at around 50 to 52k. Often a sign of a local distribution top.
In the video I talk trough the most relevant price levels, the not so impressive decline in open interest, perpetual swaps trading still with consistency bellow spot which implies on-going slow accumulation despite some occasional trade above which imply another possible leg down.
Also talk about books and past data with help of some heatmaps and how you can use these to assign probabilities or where to place stops as well to spot circumstances that seem like red flags and something in the market about to happen.
Overall I still don't have any strong reason to be bearish. If we start trading bellow 39k might change my tune but that will also require to books and things like funding rates and swaps v spot basis justify. At the moment none of those are looking bearish except perhaps the fact the Open Interest Levels.
It is possible as well we are printing a macro consolidation triangle that would take more time to break out. Time will tell!
Overall it's worth to look for price levers for longs nonetheless doesn't mean we cannot find good intraday scalps for short as we are still inside the macro range. Shorting 47.5 or 49.5 for example look like goo price levels for short is properly managed targeting 42k at least and reverse counter trend longs at 41k and 39k for example. Just few ideas to think about.
To start I do not (yet) think we are in a bear market. This drop was necessary and long time coming after the slow grind on weak volumes and strong sell pressure coming from the books.
Something I didn't cover in the video is the volumes on CME and BAKKT as well other popular futures platforms that spiked at around 50 to 52k. Often a sign of a local distribution top.
In the video I talk trough the most relevant price levels, the not so impressive decline in open interest, perpetual swaps trading still with consistency bellow spot which implies on-going slow accumulation despite some occasional trade above which imply another possible leg down.
Also talk about books and past data with help of some heatmaps and how you can use these to assign probabilities or where to place stops as well to spot circumstances that seem like red flags and something in the market about to happen.
Overall I still don't have any strong reason to be bearish. If we start trading bellow 39k might change my tune but that will also require to books and things like funding rates and swaps v spot basis justify. At the moment none of those are looking bearish except perhaps the fact the Open Interest Levels.
It is possible as well we are printing a macro consolidation triangle that would take more time to break out. Time will tell!
Overall it's worth to look for price levers for longs nonetheless doesn't mean we cannot find good intraday scalps for short as we are still inside the macro range. Shorting 47.5 or 49.5 for example look like goo price levels for short is properly managed targeting 42k at least and reverse counter trend longs at 41k and 39k for example. Just few ideas to think about.
D7R
