已更新

14.04.2021

Bitcoin has entered price discovery, new ATH being just under 64k. With the biggest schelling point ever, 100k per Bitcoin, being only +50% away, the risk to reward at these heights has become a question mark to me. Bitcoin was so grossly underpriced for years, that it's strange to finally realise it could be getting close to it's current "fair price".

Just to provide a reality check, 10k to 60k was 500%. Going from 64k to 100k is roughly 50%. I feel holding Bitcoin at without a clear exit plan and invalidation level is getting risky, at least from swing trading perspective.

I want to see >70k in the next 1-2 weeks, since we already consolidated for 1-2 months. If we start ranging again around 60k, things are starting to get weird. 50MA is at 55k, but I've contemplated moving my stop-loss level even higher, currently considering 60k.

8h close < 60k, I'm hedged. >60k, I'm long.

This type of strategy will eat you alive during a ranging market, but bull markets tend to trend aggressively during the mid to late stages. Also we just saw a month long consolidation, leading to a breakout upwards. For these reasons, I believe using a simple swing trading system in the current market environment is very much justified.

註釋

Didn't have my stops placed at 60k, the market is currently on a free fall. Daily market structure has been lost by losing 55k, things are looking dark currently.

I don't think panic selling the free fall now at 52k is the move, I'm looking to get a bounce first before deciding what to do. If we nuke straight to 40ks, then be it.

註釋

Another marginally higher high leading to big sell off, this is super concerning. Either this is the mother of all bull traps or the top is in.

註釋

I think the best move risk to reward wise is to hedge at a re-test of either 55k or 60k.

註釋

A lot of data suggesting this could've been a bull trap:

"- 7b liquidations in 1 hr
- futures in backwardation
- low liquidity on a weekend
- massive arbs between exchanges
- spot bids stacked "