比特幣

Thoughts on the market: BTC -> NDX -> SPX -> NVDA -> SMH

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Market Outlook Scenarios

1. Delayed Correction: Despite near-term volatility, markets reach new all-time highs before experiencing a significant correction. Bear market conditions likely emerge late 2025 or early 2026.

2. Imminent Downturn: Current downward momentum continues, approaching bear market territory (-20%). At that point, we'll need to reassess based on:

  • Earnings reports from major companies
  • Forward guidance quality
  • Potential for either a sustained recovery or further deterioration



3. Accelerated Bear Market: Markets rapidly decline from current levels, driven by:

  • Economic uncertainty intensifying
  • Misalignment between AI technology expectations and actual business outcomes
  • Significant revaluation of growth assets


Remember: it's never a straight line up or down

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