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BTC plan for summer

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BTC prices have been consolidating below the monthly resistance for almost 3 months. This is bullish.

In my opinion, a bull flag is being formed. My strategy is as follows:

If a monthly candle closes above the monthly resistance trendline, it's a BUY signal.
A better BUY would be when price falls to the lower range of the current flag, around $57000 - $59000.

Actually, I'm waiting dips at lower prices to increase my bags. But I'm ready for both scenarios.

My mid-term take profit will be around $100,000 when prices hit the long-term weekly trendline. For long-term target, I've already posted my analysis (see link below) with cycle target around $120,000 but this would be ajusted to higher one. I may update this long-term analysis in the future.

Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on my personnal views and is not a financial advice. Risk is under your control.

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Update: BTC is heading the range' lows

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Down side is still on-going. I expect a weekly close at $63000

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Latest Weekly candle closed at $63100 as expected. Actually, this is my weekly support level. Now BTC continues the downway to the expected liquidity area. I'll wait for reaction around $57000-$59000 range to decide if I'll open Longs.

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BTC has been reaching the Liquidity level. I've bought BTC around $59000 and will add more if price goes to $57000.
Other altcoins are added in my bag: FET, INJ, PEPE, KNC at this level.

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BTC bounces back when touching the liquidity area. If the current weekly candle closes above $64200, it's a very bullish signal.
If not, a revisit of the support of the channel with possible deviation can still happen in the coming weeks. This is another opportunity to increase your bags.
Be ready for both scenarios.

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BTC hasn't made any big move since the drop to 60000s

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In low Time-Frame, we can have this view :

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BTC was rejected by the daily resistance on Friday and now it is retesting this level.
If successful, BTC will look for $64000 (weekly and daily resistance). But in my opinion, another scenario would also happen in case of rejection: BTC would revisit the $57000 area. Next week would be highly volatile:

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The resistance of $62000 was broken. Let's wait for retest to confirm if this break-out:

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Along with the view above, what concerns me is the CME Gaps $60600 and $59600

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As I concerned, BTC has been falling from 64000s toward the CME gaps.
The first gap is being filled

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The false break-out happen and the distribution scenario is confirmed (as expected)
I added the event "UT in Phase B" to the chart of 1st July.

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The distribution is being absorbed at 57000s. I accumulated more BTC at this price as planned

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Price of BTC is now at the expected Buy zone although the latest movement was very tricky:

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In 1D TF, here below is the view. My invalidation level of this scenario is the weely support. Let keep a close eye on this price $56200

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BTC is consolidating (again) after the sell-off last week. I need more data but this consolidating would be a re-distribution. I'd canceled all Longs and ready for the worse case (and this will cancel the original view - accumulation at this price)

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With the latest data, in my opinion the local bottom is $56000-$60000. Sell-off from German Gov is well aborbed. Let's be patient for a next leg-up $70000 -> $73000 -> $99000, as planned. Any revisit of the liquidity zone is an opportunity to increase current bags.
Here is the view in 1W TF: A good weekly candle shows that buy pressure is present.

Here is the view in 1D TF:

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Update: BTC has risen +11% two last days. Next key levels are still $70000 - $73000 and $99000.

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What concerns me is the CME gaps at $57900. Today, news on MT_Gox deposit for distribution happens again. We need to pay attention with these two point.
I'll add my bags if BTC revisit the range's low.

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BTC is consolidating below the key level (1D TF) at around $65200.
Current support is EMA 50D. I'll keep an eye on the CME gap at $58000 also (MT_Gox distribution would dump BTC to this level)

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The key level $65200 was successfully broken. This price is now the current support.
The first target $70000 is on the table.

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For Long (short-term) trade, $70000 is a strong resistance. So secure your trades in profit and pay attention with late Longs.

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$70000 was not reached. BTC was rejected by the channel's resistance. Let's see how strong are the supports MA-120D and EMA-50D, facing to on-going MT_gox distribution. It's not a good moment to Long or Short in my opinion. Both side (up to $70000 or down to the CME gap at $58000) are possible now.

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BTC's arrived to the range's high of the channel. +20% since the proposed Entry (around $56000). Take profit with altcoins' Longs is not a bad idea. For next week, here are some highlights:
- CME gap at $65800
- US Interest Rate on 31st July

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As mentioned earlier, the CME gap at $65,800 was filled today. So, what's next? This is where it gets tricky. We need to focus on another key event this week: the US interest rate announcement tomorrow, July 31st. Expect volatility.

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BTC dumped after FED decision on interest rate (unchanged). Today, we can see that buying dips happens and BTC seems to close above the EMA50D. Short-term bounce of the whole market is expected the next days and BTC would restest $70000. Let's see.
In my opinion, good buying price is around the CME gaps ($58000) or when BTC break the current channel.

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All markets suffered today with fear of weakened economy and recession. BTC broke the strong EMA 50D support. My guess now is the CME gap at around $58000

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What a day. BTC lost -15% during the day (due to fear of war, recession). The scenario is no longer valid. I will update BTC chart.
Thank for following this analysis.