botje11

Bitcoins big bears shakeout, repeating the last big rally?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
Bitcoin             has been moving sideways since the rally off a few days ago. Markets usually cool down and go sideways after a big rally like that and with Bitcoin             during weekends the chances are even higher. When we look at the rally off month ago, we are almost moving in identical but there are a few differences:

- Now it's weekend with less whales
- Volume is much lower, but that's logical because it is weekend, but also offers more room for manipulation

It looks like we have finished the purple area and could be going up from here. I do think chances are bigger that we should see a bigger consolidation phase with prices between 7400 and 8300. My view on things now is, that even if we go up from here and break the 8400, i think a new high will be less sustainable. I think the high for this rally will be less high than if we make a bigger correction now. I am still long from the 6710 and i am planing to ride it out with the next wave up.

Bigger game plan:
Since almost two weeks now i have been saying that we would need higher prices in the 8K's and maybe even 9K's to shake out all the bears, but the weakness of the market was confusing. When the second rally to the 7200 got sold of pretty hard, i got confused as well because i really thought a solid double bottom was formed. Since that drop from the 7200 i knew the market was getting weaker but still i went long at the 6710 because i believed my theory about the accumulation was right. But that drop from the 6950 to 6700 was not giving much confidence as well :). But quite fast after that drop the whales showed their hand and started to push the market up and triggered a massive short squeeze. When we were still in the 6K levels i talked about that IF we would rally up to the 8K/9K levels i would start to build up a big short position. That idea has not changed, yet!

So what my plan for now is, that if we do rally up from here, i could be building up my short position around the 8800/9000. If we DO make that bigger correction now, than i will probably start building it up around the 9200/9400. But i won't start to short it without any signals that momentum is slowing down. For more information please read some of my previous analysis.

I want to thank you guys again for making me the number 1 author of the week, thats a record for me :) And today i crossed the 5000 followers as well. Last but not least, i have the number 1 Bitcoin             idea, again :)

Good luck trading and don't don't trade to much during weekends :)

David
評論: Still got the looks it want's to copy the other move
評論:
評論: And another zoom in of the picture
評論: Watch out for a fake break out to the upside, these things have happened allot lately. Volume is still very low so it’s very tricky
評論: In the chart below, you can see those 3 moments where i saw some price action that kind of indicated which direction we could go. The first 2 clearly said down and the third one was saying up. I posted these moments in my previous analysis, but still not sure if they could be traded. Clearly they could, giving moves from 150 to 300 points. I don't know what the agenda of these whales is yet, with the first 2 moves i thought maybe they are taking profit from the 6K levels, but when i saw the third one, i started to think this is maybe just a whale who trades at low volume and within a consolidation taking 100 to 300 points. It's difficult to say, but 3 in row does not really sound like a coincidence

評論: And there is the breakout, but watch out for a false breakout, price should not drop below 8100/8200 anymore because that it gets tricky

So it looks like we are making an identical move as a month ago. If we continue like this we should see another move up soon. But i don't like it when things get TO easy, so be aware

評論: I have moved my stop to 8100ish of the position i still hold from 6710. If we reach 8600/8700 i will close as well
評論: 8400 won't be an easy one to break, but if bulls manage to make a good bull flag from this small squeeze, it COULD push right through it. A month ago we had a 600 point rally after the breakout, lets see what they can do now
評論: When we zoom in, we can see that bulls are trying to push higher here. But if we start to see a small H&S here, it could be a first signs of a false breakout. If price stays above that green area, than it's still 90% bullish momentum and in the making of a bull flag. Looking at the low volume on the 1 min chart, seeing there is no selling pressure, chances are bigger we go up from here

It's just that this market has become meaner every week. So we have to think about every scenario
評論: Still inside the bull flag, as long as price stays above that green area around 8280 the flag is in full force. Whatever happens, price should stay above the lower green area, breakout level of this rally. Target of this bull flag is around 8650. But the 8400 is a heavy resistance so it wont be easy to break it.

Don't forget to like guys if you like this idea and my updates :)

評論: So the green support area held as a support for now at least. We should not stay in this flag for many hours and should see some follow through soon to keep bullish momentum alive
評論: Looks like an attempt to break out now, maybe a bit to early though. Think Asia must wake up first :) before the market decides which direction to take
評論: There are some people pushing it down, but bulls are trying to make a small parabolic move to break out of this bull flag
評論: And bulls are loosing their grip
評論: I have moved my stop to 8250 of my position from 6710. To just below that green support area. I am starting to think the 8400 is still to heavy for now. A failed attempt would be confirmed if we drop below that green area. If we stay above it bulls will probably try it again.
When you look at my primary chart, you can see that i marked it as a heavy resistance area. I was thinking about just selling here at 8370, but market sentiment is still very strong, so the green support could catch the price if we drop from here
評論: Here we can see the rally after the breakout has been weaker if we compare it to the one on the left. The triangle we broke out of has a target of around 8500/8600, but if we fail to break the 8400 and fall short of this target AND if we break the 8250 support, price could make a fast drop.
Thats it for today guys, Good luck trading,

Don't forget to like if you appreciate my work here, i am also loosing grip on the daily author :) LOL
評論: No don't start to think that i did this :) LOL
評論: Looks like we will make another drop from here, unless we break that neckline
評論: Bulls are trying to fight this. That green level is an important support now,could also be the neckline of an H&S. So if we drop below it i think we can see 7700 very soon. If bulls can show some force now and break that small neck line of the inverse H&S it still has to fight that red resistance area. So we could say we are in a channel now, and hopefully we will see some direction soon

評論: Slowly dropping, could accelerate if we drop below the 8000https://www.
評論:
評論: Sometimes it's just to easy, wish it was always like that :)

I posted a new idea, don't forget to like :)
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My Personal Journey with BTC
I'm still trying to figure out what happened in the market these days.
Maybe I'm wrong, and maybe I'm right, in any case, there are a lot of things to learn.
I'll find patterns, tricks and ideas and learn about all of them and I'll post a lot of updates here. Be with me and let's figure it out together.

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IMO, from the last 2 times saw truncated 5th wave followed by a sharp drop. but this time what i think there will be no truncated 5th wave and there will be two scenario, 1st one is this time this downtrend will continue or 2nd is it will move upward toward 8800+ and then a sharp drop. what is your opinion master @botje11 .
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botje11 VIPIN_IITK
@VIPIN_IITK, My game plan is still clear, as long as we stay above the 7500. Please read my analysis and my updates
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So is 8000 (for educational purposes of course) a good entry point for a short here? Or would it be likely to get bear trapped into a small short squeeze?
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botje11 Etch1234
@Etch1234, usually the most safe play is wait for a break and a retracement back to the resistance line. But problem with Bitcoin is, you usually don't get the chance because it drops in a straight line or squeezes up in a straight line
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Hoe kom je aan al die vrije tijd om te blijven updaten? Much appreciated though :)
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botje11 GymTanLimp
@GymTanLimp, Vrije tijd? je moest is weten. 100+ hours a week of working
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Hey mate

There's my view on the mid term

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botje11 Nidalas
@Nidalas, Looks like realistic possibility. I have very big doubts about 11K prices. I think if we do break the 11.000/11.200 we will most probably break the 11.700 as well. 10K will be a big challenge, if that gets broken than higher prices are possible. Your red lines, not necessarily the big highs and lows, but more the fact we will stay in a big range for several months, is maybe the most realistic option. I look at the bigger picture as well for general direction, but usually i plan things day by day
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