We have mentioned for weeks now that the market is just to volatile to be trading and at that time we went to 30% cash in our 70/30 portfolio. Now we didn't sell anything (with one exception which i will explain), but instead of trading the market, we battened down the hatches and were looking for fire sales. Now this is not a knock on traders. I follow several traders as I think they have great TA skills. Dian, MarcPmarkets, Excavo, citron rouge to name a few have a mentality of trading that is less about ego, and more about charts. But I did not make my money in the market trading and few do. I made my money investing and a lot of it! Traders have to trade to make money, investors we let our money make money! MarcPmarkets mentioned yesterday he would NOT short BTC' on margin, and he has been trading on wall street since the 90's. In 30 years of investing I've seen traders make money in bull markets, but none have out performed me in the long term. Have you ever noticed most traders only have 10 years or less experience? Why because eventually statistics show you lose and everyone makes money in bull markets. Now there are the exceptions. But as we have stated over and over they are truly exceptions! MarcP is one of them, but why? Because he knows when when NOT to trade!
Yesterday I had several messages about shorting Bitcoin. I was honest, yes the chart says short, but fundamentally I do not think you can short here as the segwit2x is lingering and unknowns are not a good thing not to mention it was crowded. I think the three that messaged yesterday are happy today they did not short! As an investor/trader I we do not just look at the charts but also looked at the fundamentals as well. It was mixed. NO TRADE! We provided a fair market value for BTC' and it was about $4900. Fundamentally we felt the price of BTC' was going to be dependent on B2x which at the time was trading around $1000. Well this morning it popped to $1050+. Is it a coincidence that BTC' popped as well? NO! This is where investors that are looking at other factors out perform traders looking at patterns. B2X' is the factor driving price right now, not a head and shoulders pattern, not a diamond pattern, it's fundamentals! This is why we mentioned it is critical to follow B2X'. These patterns are forming because of the trend. The trend is sideways until something happens one way or another with B2x! B2X is the chart and trend you should be following, not a connect the dot pattern on BTC'.
Fundamentally a few weeks ago we posted an article on BCH' and why we thought BCH' was truly undervalued and it was time to accumulate. We looked at the fundamentals, we went beyond the charts and spoke with true code technicians that were telling us BCH' is the real Bitcoin. Boy did we get some flak, but doing our research and sticking to our guns paid off. And better than any 1-2.5 risk to reward trade. (by the way if it's not above 4 on bitcoin I do not trade it, it's too expensive which I will expand on). In addition we sold some BTC' off (because it was overweight in our portfolio) and bought more BCH and ZEC. Well one lost 10% but the other was a 60% or so winner. This again was an investment move. We sold off some BTC' which was up 50% from our original entry and added to two coins that were undervalued. BTC' at that time was trading around $5900. See how investing and trading around a core portfolio out performs traders in volatile markets? If BTC does correct, then the move increases our returns even more! Chicken dinner night baby!
Now why we do not trade BTC' less than 1/4. It's just too expensive. It's about percentage returns not dollar gains (unless your a scalper). I would rather play for a $5 move in LTC' then a $300 move in BTC'. Now if the RR is right like 1/8 then I'm in on that, but until B2X' is settled BTC' is not tradeable here period! Just hold and monitor the fundamentals.
評論
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Not sure why the BTC chart screwed up so here it is.
Bro, are you sure you're not becoming emotional re-bitcoin? You've been praying for a correction since Sept when I told you BTC is in full-blown bull mode.
Now in every one of your "BTCUSD" contributions you can't help but discredit BTC and shill altcoins. I see this behavior with newbies who feel like they haven't acquired enough BTC, so they wish for another alt coin to take the crown instead. None of them understand the importance of BTC and the foundation it's building which all alt coins rely on. With all due respect, you're relatively new to crypto... and I can't roll my eyes when you talk about "BTC fundamentals" and then say BCH is the real bitcoin. I don't think you've been around long enough to truly understand the fundamentals of BTC nor the history of BCH crowd.
You're right though, investors (holders) do a lot better than traders..... I'm still up 14X on my BTC investment, never sold and I have no reason to because the future prospect, and fundamentals, are better than it's ever been and better than you would hope for (for BITCOIN, not BCH)
goldbug1
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@devilninja777, LOL, I never discredit BTC and I have been a staunch supporter of buy and hold. And I did miss out on BTC a year ago, but no regrets. OK yes I do regret not getting in. But per the BCH comment. This was not something that I am knowledgeable enough to have made myself, and I clearly state that. This was explained to me by two early investors and code writers one which was a miner that were in BTC back in 2010-2012. When I say code writers I mean guys that understand the algorithms and technical stuff that I will never understand and have written codes to implement bitcoin, dash and eth into payment processing. When they speak tech I listen.
But if it were an investing blog, it would be simple, buy the dips and hold. A correction will happen they always do, and I have stated if we break and hold $6250 I will buy for $7000 just like we did when it broke $4750 and we bought for $6000, though we sold at the $5800 level when it stalled. But that's trading and those profits add to my position. At $7000 we will see if we get a correction. But $6250 has not held and until it does I am not a buyer. Keep in mind we went from $4750 to $5900 in 3-4 days so I was only a bull for 3-4 days. Then I'm in waiting mode. And though bitcoin is up 8% today, BCH is up 60%. So winner BCH.
But I always love to hear from you, and you have done what most should. Just hold through the dips!
Thanks again for your comments!
devilninja777
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@goldbug1, I like to hear from you too my friend :)
Thanks for writing back
goldbug1
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@devilninja777, Pretty much following our $8000 target chart.
goldbug1
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@goldbug1, Hit the $5534 mark and then shot to the $6250 extended top let's see if we get a correction to $4500 here before we surge higher. Or maybe we just surge higher at this point!!!
emmanuel.cadet
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You make some impressive analyses. Even if some complaint your projections were "wrong", your charts and thinking are definitely a must see and read.
Thanks for sharing with us.
While I agree with most of what you say here, I just want to point out the major flaw in the mental concept of something like a 'Real Bitcoin' so early. This is not the kind of thing that can be figured out beforehand. It's like calling a football team the winner before the match starts. Other than that, I think you make a good point!
goldbug1
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@drecksgrieche, I don't disagree, but this is based on experts that have been in this space since 2010. Mining and code writing. They also own one of the largest bitcoin ATM distributions in the country. So I took their word for it, but also did do additional research. Like I said I'm not selling BTC here other than it was so overweighted in my portfolio I reallocated it. But that is just standard portfolio adjustement not intended to go short.
Thank you for commenting!
b_fairheart
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inb4 another graph depicting some imaginary correction. I honestly don't think bitcoin will ever correct beyond 10% again.
Now in every one of your "BTCUSD" contributions you can't help but discredit BTC and shill altcoins. I see this behavior with newbies who feel like they haven't acquired enough BTC, so they wish for another alt coin to take the crown instead. None of them understand the importance of BTC and the foundation it's building which all alt coins rely on. With all due respect, you're relatively new to crypto... and I can't roll my eyes when you talk about "BTC fundamentals" and then say BCH is the real bitcoin. I don't think you've been around long enough to truly understand the fundamentals of BTC nor the history of BCH crowd.
You're right though, investors (holders) do a lot better than traders..... I'm still up 14X on my BTC investment, never sold and I have no reason to because the future prospect, and fundamentals, are better than it's ever been and better than you would hope for (for BITCOIN, not BCH)