BTC - Range and the power of the .65 Fib
已更新
Good morning traders,
It's been a while, but seeing as I'm taking a break from options and trading BTC again, that this would be a perfect time for me to post an idea to the community.
Lets dive in.
Market overview:
After breaking the long term down trend we had an accelerated upward spike that stopped just 6 points away from the .65 of the overall bearish structure. It's never ceases to amaze me how this commodity respects fib levels and fractal/patterns. There really isn't another commodity or equity that has such respect for these patterns and levels.
After profit taking at the .65, we find ourselves range trading until the next major move. After a large move, only one of two things can happen, either a re-trace, or an extended period of range to cool off and re-fuel for the next impulse wave. So what's next?
Bearish Key Points:
1) We currently have shown a strong trend on the daily in regards to TD Sequential. Both Heikin Ashi and Japanese candles show TD 10, and 12 respectively. These numbers signal signs of exhaustion and a likely correction ahead.
2) On the hourly chart we can see MACD bearish divergence.
3) Also on the hourly we have RSI Bearish Divergence.
4) Hourly MFI Bearish Divergence:
5) Hourly SlowStoch Bearish Divergence:
Bullish Key Points:
1) Impulse waves tend to end with divergence. With that in mind, it's perfectly probably we will make another run at the .65.
2) VFI does NOT show divergence, it shows accumulation. This can lead to a situation where we test that .65 again.
3) We're currently challenging the .618
Trading plan:
I unloaded my BTC from 3800 @ 5165 and I'm looking for a re-buy.
Bullish Plan:
1) We're currently on a run as we speak, and if we make a run at that .65, I will wait for a close above it on the 15 minute chart, after the pullback from the .65 to climb aboard.
Bearish Plan:
1) If we retrace before clearing the .65 of the bearish impulse, I will be looking to the daily 200 MA @ 4683 to show signs of support. If we are piercing that level and it ultimately breaks, the "money zone" will be between the .618 and .65 of the bullish impulse @ 4432-4477.
As always, if you made it this far, I thank you. I hope you found this information useful, and if so, please support me by hitting the "Like" and "Follow" button.
It's been a while, but seeing as I'm taking a break from options and trading BTC again, that this would be a perfect time for me to post an idea to the community.
Lets dive in.
Market overview:
After breaking the long term down trend we had an accelerated upward spike that stopped just 6 points away from the .65 of the overall bearish structure. It's never ceases to amaze me how this commodity respects fib levels and fractal/patterns. There really isn't another commodity or equity that has such respect for these patterns and levels.
After profit taking at the .65, we find ourselves range trading until the next major move. After a large move, only one of two things can happen, either a re-trace, or an extended period of range to cool off and re-fuel for the next impulse wave. So what's next?
Bearish Key Points:
1) We currently have shown a strong trend on the daily in regards to TD Sequential. Both Heikin Ashi and Japanese candles show TD 10, and 12 respectively. These numbers signal signs of exhaustion and a likely correction ahead.
2) On the hourly chart we can see MACD bearish divergence.
3) Also on the hourly we have RSI Bearish Divergence.
4) Hourly MFI Bearish Divergence:
5) Hourly SlowStoch Bearish Divergence:
Bullish Key Points:
1) Impulse waves tend to end with divergence. With that in mind, it's perfectly probably we will make another run at the .65.
2) VFI does NOT show divergence, it shows accumulation. This can lead to a situation where we test that .65 again.
3) We're currently challenging the .618
Trading plan:
I unloaded my BTC from 3800 @ 5165 and I'm looking for a re-buy.
Bullish Plan:
1) We're currently on a run as we speak, and if we make a run at that .65, I will wait for a close above it on the 15 minute chart, after the pullback from the .65 to climb aboard.
Bearish Plan:
1) If we retrace before clearing the .65 of the bearish impulse, I will be looking to the daily 200 MA @ 4683 to show signs of support. If we are piercing that level and it ultimately breaks, the "money zone" will be between the .618 and .65 of the bullish impulse @ 4432-4477.
As always, if you made it this far, I thank you. I hope you found this information useful, and if so, please support me by hitting the "Like" and "Follow" button.
註釋
We've grinded higher, my original trading plan is still in place. I would caution that if the bears are going to push this down before new highs, it will need to happen very very soon, currently everything is lining up for a push down as we speak.1) Lagging span is about to have a bearish cross on the hourly. A close should confirm downward movement towards the daily 200 EMA.
2) RSI is exhausted and retreating.
3) RSI has bear crossed its average EMA.
4) Slowstoch had a bearish cross and is currently dropping.
5) MACD has bearish crossed.
6)VFI is crossing downwards.
If we are going to re-test the lows of this run, or make new lows, I would expect it to happen within the next day, starting very soon.
If it fails to materialize, I will look for opportunities to enter the market on the next bullish macd push, as we will likely be making an upward move if this correction stalls.
註釋
Forgot to attach chart.註釋
Idea closed. Will continue update in new idea @ 
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Twitter: twitter.com/Jedi_ant
Twitter: twitter.com/Jedi_ant
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