It's starting to show some strenght again, It had a lot of trouble getting through the red area, the 15.400/15.500 area, what i have mentioned many times already is an important zone. After a drop it just spiked trough it now. Not completely convincing, because the is not really high! Real strenght would be shown if there would be many sellers, but even more convincing buyers. No there is still a chance that sellers are waiting for higher prices. The next red area will be a test of that, around 16.200!
Second thing is, is falling more and more behind, difference is 600 points now. I have mentioned this aready a few times before, untill now this has always been a weak signal.
The swings are getting bigger and extremer by the day, even by the hour! For me this is a sign of desperation, for the buyers but also for the sellers! A move above 16.200 and 17.200 could bring back some more confidence. If t cannot get above these 2 levels soon, and it would drop below 13.000, than expect to see 10K very fast. For now it's looking quite positive, but it has to stay above 15.000!!
Ideally it drops to around 15.500 to retest the former resistance as a good support. Around the 15.400/15.600 would be a good place to go long on BTC . The mos scenario would be if it would make a now, i will draw that in an update. is still falling short, but the difference is smaller now. So maybe a flag would get them closer and pushing them both up after that.
14.800 should be the maximum stop level, but it's best if it stays above the 15.000
This is what i mean with a bullish flag, the most positive version. Ideally the breakout above 16.200 would be with higher volume! In the last hour the difference between Bitstamp and Bitfinex decreased from 600 to 400/500 points now. For a breakout through 16.200, the difference should be around 300 points max, that's what i have noticed the last couple of days
This is the Bitstamp chart, the buyers here still do not have the same positive confiction. The differene became smaller, almost 300 points but has dropped back to almost 500 points again. The 16.000 level here is the same as the 16.200 level at Bitfinex, where they are even above now. THis does not give confidence. I am closing my position now. I will but back if they get above 16.000 at Bitstamp!
Already up 400 points, i think more will come. I will try to close around 15.500/15.700. If it turns above 15.400/15.600 i will turn long again. But i do need some sort of confirmation than. I started this analysis with a long position, but i am seeing new and dissapointing signals. But everything above 15.400 is still bullish!!
I did not go long from that point. I will try to get in again around 16K
I dont work with indicators, dont trust them. They confirm mostley after the fact, before is difficult! I only use them for divergence for confirmation. Work with trend lines, support/resistance levels, volume and sentiment. It's a risky trade, but the first one got me 500 points already, the second ons can probably only cost me 100/150 points with a reward from 500 to 1000 points. I have seen this exact same pattern around the ATH, i react on that, i have mentioned this a few times before now the last few days. It works perfectly.
It will most likely only go through the 16K when Bitfinex is around 16.300/16.400. That's still under my entry level. So i even have some extra room. I said i would not short it again, but the spread between the two went above 600 again and at bitfinex it went above 16.500 (16.560 even), i saw a perfect (cheap) price for a short trade