$BTC - Down to 200 Weekly MA support ($3400)?

Price is at crucial resistance of 200 Weekly EMA where the rallies were stopped several times since Dec '18 (see linked chart). We also appear to be in a consolidating triangle, and I noticed a fractal which can repeat

After the Jan rally, there was a drop and hike which almost created a doubletop (pink ABC waves) and the price broke down towards the 200 WMA. Noticed that B wave found resistance at 0.786 Fib length of A wave and then dropped.

Even now, we are finding resistance at 0.786 Fib of the current A wave and the drop will again take us towards the triangle bottom and where 200 WMA can offer support again. The ABC length looks very similar to the ABC length then, which can be considered as a fractal and also coincides with the triangle consolidation theory.

This idea gets invalidated if the price goes above B, which is a tight stop (2+%) for a short position and a target of the bottom of the triangle (11+%)