Bitcoin preparing for a relief rally? 9K or maybe even 10K

The weakness Bitcoin             has shown the last few days has surprised me a bit, i did not think we would go this low during the weekend. But it starting to look like we are making a wedge here now. Look at the similarities we had at the 9300 low a month ago. This should mean we are in the final stage of it.

BUT, volume is still to high, so that means it's probably not don yet, volume has to drop before we we make the low. As you can see, i drew the blue line, like that. indicating we could drop to the support line, slide on it for a while, let volume drop and THAN prepare for a lift off. It's a pure guess of course, but it's a very likely scenario.

I was short since the 11.600 which i closed at the 8500. Than i said we would go towards the 10K, where i went short again around the 9800 which i closed on average at 8200. Made a few small trades, long and short, to finally build up a short position again at 8500 and 8600 which i closed today around 7900 average. All these trades were made based on the bigger picture that we will make a big drop the next weeks. So far i have predicted most waves pretty good. But the market lets us adjust strategies within the bigger picture.

Now it just starting look more and more that we will see a big relief rally up. Something i did not think we would see yet, but the market is really weak at the moment, that usually triggers a big short squeeze!

To be clear, this long trade is purely within the bigger down trend. A move like this is not a reversal pattern, it's just to shake out short positions and attract bulls back in with their money.

Predicting where the low will be is very difficult, ideally we see a pattern on the 1 min chart. But if not, it's just guessing. The max should be around 7200, but the support line is around 7400. I will go probably go long if we get around the 7400. Overall it will be a small position! Because it's a counter trend trade. At best i will make it bigger after we break out start the rally.There is a chance the low is already set here, so i have taken 25% already at the 7550 just know, while i am writing this.

I know my followers will be surprised i am posting this bullish analysis :) but hey, don't fight the market, try ride the waves with it :)
評論: I have seen more people drawing a much bigger wedge, from the 11.700 high down, but that's just wrong TA, in my humble opinion. The position of a wedge is very important, this one could be a typical one. The bigger one is not. Volume picture of the bigger one is just completely wrong.
評論: It's trying to set up a few inverse H&S patters here. But the higher we get, the more likely it fails. This could be it, but i really doubt it

評論: It's trying and it's looking got, bot no volume. So we will probably see another drop
評論: Dificult to say where we ware headed now, think we still need to make a new low which could trigger a move up, it's 50/50 for me now
評論: Its trying to breakout from here already, if it manages to stay above the 7700, we have a first confirmation that the low could be set. But still no real volume, so it could just become another failed attempt, that we have seen many times before lately
評論: I have not seen it this weak in a long time, just cant make a rally. Looking at the volume, my guess it's not selling volume thats to high now, there is just no buying volume. Thats even worse!. We could see a higher low here around 7600/7650, could still be a small bullish signs. But it's more likely we drop some more, ideally volume also drops making the wedge more reliable
評論: Almost certain we go lower, this small bear flag says maybe even towards the 7200. I will add around 7400 and 7250. Overall small position!!!!
評論: forgot to post this
評論: I am closing my long, for a small profit, because this flag says 80% we go down from here
評論: Just in time :) Wanted to short it, but main reason i did not, don't want to trade to much in weekends :)
評論: Target is around 7250/7300, have the first ones in at 7360 and i will buy 2 more as we drop towards the 7250
評論: At bitmex some one is pushing the price down with 2 orders of $6.000.000, twice now, even though the Bitcoin price is 50 points higher on all exchanges. The first one got bought quite quickly, but than just another one popped up. Games are being played here people
評論: I have closed the first ones again for even money, got a feeling we go down more than i though we would
評論: The slightly bigger picture
評論: Look at that buy volume bar, bulls are probably starting to fight now
評論: I bought again at 7410, that big buy candle got me confused again. Thing is, we already made the false move below the big wedge, so that could already be done. That small flag says 7150/7200, but we have almost got there already
評論: This could also be just a test of the breakout price around 7550, just to be sure, i bought back in at 7410. For now i am not changing strategy anymore. I will add around 7200 and that's it. Stop around 6900/7000 (wide stop because my position is small!)
評論: It was okay that the flag was taking a bit longer, but now AGAIN it's starting to weaken. Chances increase we go towards the 7300 again and MAYBE even lower
評論: So the 7500 did not get sold with big volume, as this rejection from that level is starting to slow down, could be a signal bulls can get some confidence and will buy it from here again
評論: Okay people, the G20 meeting is probably the reason WHY we are making this wedge. Whales are pushing price down scaring traders And make it logical BECAUSE of the G20 meeting. But chances are 80% or even more we break upwards. It could always go lower, but I don’t see a break of 7000. Next weak probably when we make another crash
評論: Okay people, so far the prediction of my primary chart has been quite outstanding, telling we will drop to the low of that wedge and hang around that support level. So far that original plan is working out just fine.
That's the thing, the smaller the time frame the more emotional the trades become. That's why i have said a few times before, it's always good to zoom out sometimes and look at the bigger pictures. A break of 7600 could be a first (very small) bullish sign. IF we break it, i will probably add some more instead of waiting for 7200, because chances decrease if we break the 7600
評論: I just hope, that the unexperienced people don't take these people serious anymore. It makes me really angry when people make predictions like this. On the other hand, it's everyone's own responsibility if they trade on predictions of these people
評論: Bulls are going for it, think we will break out now
評論: We could see a big rally if shorts start to close
評論: I am out at 7970
評論: That was a fun ride :), i am starting to get better and better in predicting these pumps. Anyway, i only got out because this was a big ride, could just go on, but i think a bull flag is place now, so maybe we could see 7800/7700 again
評論: Oh crap :) LOL
評論: Now it's starting to weaken a bit. Could make one last wave up, but mostly sideways and slowly down. 7800/7700 would be ideal to start wave C of this correction
評論: The flag is still holding up quite strong, so chances are bigger now, the correction will only be in time and much less in price. Looks more like it that we break the upside and move higher from here, but i am absolutely not buying here!I will get in if we drop towards the 7800, and if it does not get there, than i will just be waiting patiently until we get around the 9K to build up a big short position again. I also have a long positions on a few Alts, so so still taking advantage there :) I will close those when we get between the 9K and 10K
Follow me on Twitter for updates here on TradingView: @botje11TV
i dont have shorting on BInance platform. which level it gonna break in case it broke down? just this/? 7800?
botje11 Yuri_Uk1982
@Yuri_Uk1982, For now i think around 7800, but anything is possible, 8000 or maybe 7500. But that's unlikely. Than i would look for another exchange where you are able to short
waiting for the 4h candle to close above 23.6 (8293).
hkh222 hkh222
@hkh222, The last 3 closed below it. in 5 mins the 4h candle closes. let's see where we end up.
why specialy that point sory?
What are your thoughts on BTC will going down to $6000 area again?
Hey botje, there's something that got me confused. When I draw the top of the wedge in a linear scale, it seems to be a breakout, but if I draw it in a log scale, there's a failed breakout. And if I switch back to linear scale, the top of the log scale wedge is not even touched yet. Could you please explain this? Whenever you got the time, no hurry at all! Thank you very much for sharing your work, I find it very legit, and I like your theories! Keep up with your nice work, you are a hidden top author here on TV!
botje11 Kush-TRADE
@Kush-TRADE, I don't use a log scale, actually never. I think it was only good to use when the market was still like $50 billion marketcap. I dont even look at it anymore for this market. When you say did not broke out, was probably before it pushed even higher
hi botje, by "starting wave C" you mean go up till 9K ? thanks for your work !
botje11 nicolas.papon
@nicolas.papon, that's still the plan yes,
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