BTCUSD - The Big Picture and why I'm Leaning Short

Upside potential seems to be around lower 8000, if lucky, lower 9000s.

Downside potential seems to be around 4400 as things stand.

Based on those two figures, I lean short, but only considering technicals.

In terms of fundamentals, this particular halving will hurt BTC more than it will help it. The likelihood of Bitcoin having a 9200% gain like in previous cycles is very low. If we apply a 92x gain from where are now, anyone holding a bitcoin, or even some alt coins for that matter, will be very rich in a year or so. The market will just not be that easy. I can still be wrong here, but I'm looking at a retracement that will near a double bottom, with the possibility of bitcoin exploring even lower prices.

Anything is possible, but I lean short!