BTC - Short Term Possibilities

2021年6月27日

For two weeks, since BTC's 41K rejection and falling under the 12h 20 EMA and 10 DMA, it failed every retest of those moving averages. Breaking over the 20 EMA and 10 DMA is often a precursor to local rallies and can be used as validation of growing bullish sentiment. The opposite is true in that rejections demonstrate overwhelming bearish sentiment that leaves us trending down, like the current price movement towards the lower end of BTC's June range (30k-40k).

Following BTC's last attempt to break over the 12h 20 EMA and 10 DMA on 25/25 June, and another firm rejection, it attempted a recovery at the following supports and lost each:
➢23% fib retracement (33.9k)
➢January close price (33.2k)
➢62% fib (31.2k)

BTC finally found support at just above the 78% fib retracement (30.3k), unfortunately a retracement to that level indicates bearish sentiment. From there BTC rallied to it's current zone around the January close price (33.2k). And BTC faces a major decision today with two possible outcomes (not financial advice).

Bullish Scenario: if it breaks through resistance at the 12h 20 EMA, 10 DMA, we have potential upside target of as high as 36K where our historical 62% fib/support zone lays. In that range I expect to see major resistance. If we break through that we have an opportunity to retest $39-40k (again). I'm looking for a break through resistance and candle close/confirmation to enter a trade.

Bearish Scenario: if it fails the retest of the 20 EMA, 10 DMA we have a strong possibility of a significant red candle. The Asian pre-market for crypto begins opening in around 5 hours and the prevailing market trend at that time can be strengthened by the Asian traders- for example last week on the 20th when BTC failed to break through resistance as the 62% fib level and Asia opened the 21st (Monday) with bears in control and we posted a 10% drop by the end of the day. My bearish target here is the bottom support in the current pattern around 31.2k. I'm watching for a break below the local support at 33k and candle close/confirmation below to enter a trade here.