Macro, multi year view of BTC. Update 1
Notes on the chart:
• Month counting starts from where a new bull run begins and on the chart it marks how many months it took for the full cycle to complete (roughly 49mo).
• Blue horizontal lines are BTC halvings.
• Green zones are accumulation zones
Overall update of the 4-year journey
Back from our previous post we were looking at when the lows would be printed. After the rally in H1 of 2023, we are now looking at the expectations in the year looking forward and up to 2025.
In trend with previous years when a new cycle starts an initial top is usually printed within 6 months and this time was no different. Based on history, from month 6 (July 23) onwards, up until the halving which is expected in March 2024, BTC has seen significant drops.
However, I would strongly argue this is the true accumulation zone:
1) Confirmation of the 4-year cycle low has been set. Of course, this can be invalidated, but I would say that a significant catastrophic event would be needed to reach such levels.
2) Before every bull run, a shake-out is needed as it achieves the transfer of bitcoin from retail back to investors AND
3) Large institutions are finally eyeing to tap into the market and be exposed to this.
I think it would be impossible for anyone in this space to miss the idea of a BTC spot ETF being delayed over and over but the narratives just seem to be perfectly aligning for the upcoming years 24,25. Those would be: US elections, returning to QE as recession fears grow (consumer spending is dwindling), possibly the Ukraine war will be over, and BTC halving.
Takeaway
The period up until the halving will be volatile. However, based on history DCA up until the halving should allow you to have a fairly comfortable position for the following years.
• Month counting starts from where a new bull run begins and on the chart it marks how many months it took for the full cycle to complete (roughly 49mo).
• Blue horizontal lines are BTC halvings.
• Green zones are accumulation zones
Overall update of the 4-year journey
Back from our previous post we were looking at when the lows would be printed. After the rally in H1 of 2023, we are now looking at the expectations in the year looking forward and up to 2025.
In trend with previous years when a new cycle starts an initial top is usually printed within 6 months and this time was no different. Based on history, from month 6 (July 23) onwards, up until the halving which is expected in March 2024, BTC has seen significant drops.
However, I would strongly argue this is the true accumulation zone:
1) Confirmation of the 4-year cycle low has been set. Of course, this can be invalidated, but I would say that a significant catastrophic event would be needed to reach such levels.
2) Before every bull run, a shake-out is needed as it achieves the transfer of bitcoin from retail back to investors AND
3) Large institutions are finally eyeing to tap into the market and be exposed to this.
I think it would be impossible for anyone in this space to miss the idea of a BTC spot ETF being delayed over and over but the narratives just seem to be perfectly aligning for the upcoming years 24,25. Those would be: US elections, returning to QE as recession fears grow (consumer spending is dwindling), possibly the Ukraine war will be over, and BTC halving.
Takeaway
The period up until the halving will be volatile. However, based on history DCA up until the halving should allow you to have a fairly comfortable position for the following years.
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