So there is actually also a third scenarion going on - In case we would get this ranging scenario towards 2022, we must take in account that we had a deviation above range extreme during end of 2021. That means we could see a deviation below the range extreme on a downside, too.
This is nothing confirmed and very far from likeliest outcome to see, but it is a possibility and it is actually the most bearish possibility I could figure out for a following year.
It would consist of visiting the area of the biggest pain in markets - that is liquidity below 28k. Afterwars ,the sentiment would be so negative (And even structure would say down), but as we know ranges - only a trap to get too many shorters on board and up afterwards.
Stay safe
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