BTC on a fast path of Gold?

2021年4月23日

Although BTC & Gold differ in many respects, they both serve as highly liquid and low cost of ownership stores of value in times of ever expanding FIAT cash pools & negative real interest rates. Hence, the type of waves which took Gold to its impressive highs & lows during the 1970s may provide a template for what we can expect to happen with BTC these days. The red curves in the diagram scetch the price movement of Gold during the 1970's, compressed to a 1/10 time frame & projected onto BTCs 1d chart. Funnily, that pattern fits quite well with the Stock&Flow model ATH price prediction for BTC in 2021 (although I consider an ATH of some 280K USD around Nov. 4th 2021, too ambitions). However, I think the longer-term equilibrium at the 1.6 FIB level (100K USD) of the recent high is quite realistic. And I also expect that the current correction will last until mid June and will take us down to FIB 0,5 at least, if not even further. However, I would not take bets on that & will keep my BTC instead of swapping them with 3xBTCshort.

2021年10月15日

註釋

The above-mentioned price curve prediction for BTC, based on comparison with historic movements of GOLD prices in a decade of resource shortage & rising FIAT inflation rates still seems quite sound to me. Not only did we reach and keep a bottom of retracement around the 0.38 FIB level. The current resumption of the northern direction is showing all characteristics of a second rush to new ATHs. We certainly won't be topping out at 290K, as suggested by the graph. However, if we cross the 100K barrier, 200K is a realistic flash top this year and a good point to sell.