BTC: Range below 114k — breakout soon or fresh rejection?

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Market Overview
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BTC is range-bound below 112,600–114,000, with improving intraday momentum but a firm HTF supply shelf overhead. The broader backdrop stays constructive while supports hold, pending a liquidity catalyst.

• Momentum: Range with a bullish skew 📈 if 112,600 breaks and holds.
  
• Key levels:
  - Resistances (12H–1D): 112,600–114,000, then 116,000.
  - Supports (2H–1D): 111,000–110,300, then 108,600.
  
• Volumes: Normal to moderate (1H–4H), acting as an amplifier on rejections/breakouts.
  
• Multi-timeframe signals: 1D Up, while 12H/6H/4H remain Down; intraday (2H/1H/30m/15m) Up but capped under 112,600–114,000.
  
• Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Mixed read (NEUTRAL SELL vs NEUTRAL BUY) → overall neutral stance, waiting for flow confirmation; this aligns with a range rather than a trend.
  

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Trading Playbook
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Strategically, the dominant trend is neutral below 112,600–114,000; stay opportunistic: buy a clean breakout or tactically sell a clear rejection.

• Global bias: Neutral with buy-on-breakout skew above 112,600; key invalidation if 1D closes below 108,600.
  
• Opportunities:
  - Breakout long: Close + retest above 112,600 targeting 114,000 then 116,000.
  - Buy the dip: 111,000–110,300 (or 108,600) on a bullish 2H–1D rejection.
  - Tactical short: Rejection at 112,600–114,000 aiming 111,000 then 110,300.
  
• Risk zones / invalidations:
  - Below 108,600 on a 1D close: HTF structure weakens → risk of acceleration toward 106,800.
  - Above 114,000 on 4H/1D: invalidates range shorts and opens 116,000.
  
• Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
  - FOMC and liquidity tone (potential QT end) as key driver.
  - US equities at ATHs: supportive risk backdrop while it lasts.
  - BTC spot ETF flows mixed: uneven tailwind, needs confirmation.
  
• Action plan:
  - Entry: 112,650–112,900 (clean break/retest on 1H–4H).
  - Stop: below 111,900 (breakout play) or below 110,300 (dip play).
  - TP1: 114,000; TP2: 116,000; TP3: 118,500 (if extension).
  - Approx R/R: 1.8R to 2.5R depending on stop and scaling.
  

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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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Overall, HTFs stay rangey under a stacked resistance shelf, while LTFs press into the 112,600 pivot.

• 1D: Uptrend but capped beneath 112,600–114,000; a clean reclaim/hold would unlock 116,000.
  
• 12H/6H/4H: Down/corrective; countertrend bounces likely capped at 112,600–114,000 absent confirmed closes.
  
• 2H/1H/30m/15m: Rising structure with higher lows; continuation on break & hold of 112,600, otherwise rotation risk toward 111,000–110,300.
  
• Major divergences: Mixed 1D Up vs 12H Down; raises the bar for confirmation (retest + volume) on any breakout.
  

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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro/on-chain is mixed: potential risk-on via liquidity, but demand signals remain cautious below resistance.

• Macro events: Fed QT reportedly nearing an end (near-term), risk supportive; US indices at ATHs; FOMC next → primary liquidity tone driver.
  
• Bitcoin analysis: Pinned between the 200D (~108.5k) and STH cost basis (~113.1k); a daily close above ~113.1–116.0k unlocks higher; loss of ~108.5k risks 100–101k.
  
• On-chain data: Below STH cost basis, demand fatigue; elevated LTH distribution; cautious options → need flow impulse to validate a breakout.
  
• Expected impact: Constructive technical bias contingent on a confirmed break; without liquidity impulse, the range can persist.
  

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Key Takeaways
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Range beneath 112,600–114,000 with improving intraday but HTF supply still in control.

- Trend: Neutral, bullish if a clean break above 112,600; key supports at 111,000–110,300 and 108,600.
- Setup: Break & retest > 112,600 toward 114,000/116,000; alternative is disciplined dip-buys on bullish wicks at 110,300–108,600.
- Macro: FOMC + liquidity tone (potential QT end) is the main trigger.

Stay patient: wait for confirmation (close + retest + volume) and let flows lead risk. ⚠️