Bitcoin to 8300 or 9300, Double Top vs Bullish Triangle

2020年1月15日

Yesterday showed an upwards channel of which we broke down from, but there was no big drop to be seen. Telling me that bulls are still strong at this point and bears still weak. Now, we just hit the 8900ish again and got rejected once again. So bears are trying again here.

Question now is, can bull defend the 8600/8680 zone or not. Think that level will be the difference between a double top or a bullish triangle. So if we drop towards the 8600 and make like a bear flag there, we could see follow through towards the 8300 even. I don't think this bullish trend will be over, even if we would drop to the 8300. However, in my other analysis i mentioned 8500, maybe 8400 to be the max for a correction. So reaching 8300 won't be great for bulls, but nothing big yet. Will also depend on volume and a few other factors. Reaction of Alts will also play a big role.




Previous analysis:

2020年1月15日

註釋

Think we can say the double top is out of play, taken too long already for that, so going to continue with the triangle now. However, this doesn't meant its simply bullish, in crypto, triangles are always 50/50 for me. I have seen too many traps to simply use the basic TA assumption.

At least we can the ranges have become a bit tighter now. 8800/8760 is a support level to keep bulls in favor for the bullish triangle. Break of 8700ish prob means the triangle is bearish and we can drop towards the 8550/400. The double top target around 8300 is less likely now.

A break of 8900ish, should activate the 9300 target. But be aware for a bull trap move. We have seen many of those in the past.

2020年1月16日

註釋

Triangle broke down, 8600 still holding as support but so far all we have done is test the former support of the triangle.

Now it looks as if we have made another triangle, a bearish one. This can also go both sides, but think if we see another touch of 8600/8580, it will probably break and we could see a big drop happen. Also looking at alts, all shapes can still turn into big bull flags, just as bitcoin, but at the moment just not looking great.

Think a small range is 8600/8700. Bulls need to break 8800.

2020年1月16日

註釋

Some of the alts i looked at few hours ago, have improved the past hours. Bitcoin is still moving in the 8600/8720 range, so at the moment it can still go both ways.

On the right you can see ETH, have added that one, because it seems as if we have a curved shape now. As long as that shape holds, we can be slightly bullish. If it breaks, probably move together with weakness for Bitcoin and think we can become short term bearish then.