Bitcoin Uptrend Break but Hidden Bullish Wedge, Part 2

已更新

From the previous analysis:

Short term, 9300 should be a big resistance now. Think above 9300, i will probably consider it neutral (maybe tiny bit bullish even). Key level for the bulls is prob still the 9600/700 zone. But to be really bearish , think we should stay below the 9300 from on. If we would see a big move up from that wedge , straight through 9300/400, then it's a big chance we will continue to go up. If we see a small breakout above 9300, than i consider it as neutral.

That one is what we saw, a strong move up, but then slowing down at 9350/400. The bullish wedge once again played out, so far the move has been decent and the volume is good as well. The target is around 10.000 though, so it's key to see it get reached, otherwise we could see a counter move down again. As mentioned, 9600/700 is still the key level i think for the bulls. There have been a few small rejections from the 9600 past 2 days, but nothing big though. Do think, still a good chance we get a touch of around 9350/300 before we continue to go up. Could be this drop just now was already it, but would be a bit too fast i think. Above 9480/500, correction might be done already.

Now i have a scenario in my mind, which is the middle chart. In case we drop below 9300, to like 9250, i think the blue line has a big chance of playing out. But important that the daily candle doesn't close below 9200, if so, could mean the trend line break of the left chart still has the most weight and we drop even more this week. So the scenario of the middle chart, is making like a bearish wedge. If the current 4h candle close below 9400/380, than big chance we test the 9300/250. Close above 9430 would take bearishness of the candle away.

So, as long as we stay above 9350, bulls have upper hand.
Drop towards 9250, bearish wedge could play out, unless daily candle closes below 9200/150, that would be bad. Short term, 9480/500 is important.
9600/700 is still THE level for the bulls i think, above that zone, doesn't mean bull market, but should see at least an attempt to break 10k again.
8600 is the Key level for the bears, a daily close below that level should trigger a drop towards 7500. Short term i think 9200/180 is a support level as well which bulls have to hold.

Think a daily close below 9100, would probably make me bearish for the coming week or 2, for the possible 8600/7500 scenario described above. For the bulls, well seen so many failed breakouts, would not feel safe as long as we don't have a solid daily close above 10.500. Anything below it, bulls should be on their toes. Also important, if you remember from my previous 2 analysis, why i was looking down, is because i decided that based on the daily chart and filtering away the wicks. So i would keep an eye on that small channel on the left as well.

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Previous analysis:

Bitcoin Uptrend Break but Hidden Bullish Wedge

註釋

Also, since the March crash, Bitcoin followed the stock market to the point almost for a month or maybe longer. Past month it didn't anymore, but since like Wednesday week ago, it has been copying it almost exactly again. This makes things so much harder. Because, lets say Bitcoin breaks 9600/700, but shortly after Dow dump 500 points, VERY big chance bitcoin will simply follow. Same goes of course for the downside.

註釋

So far the scenario i had in min is playing out, but not perfectly. The levels have been touched perfectly, but we wicked up, which seems strong but i don't like it for the wedge version though. Should have stayed a bit at 9200/300 and then see bulls take over strongly. These wicks, are what this market has become. Just some big boys filling up shorts, then dump it and close it all in the bottom of the V shape. Besides the reasons, problem with these wicks is, they hide some of the foot prints to make our job even harder.

Anyway, as you can see, that resistance zone i mentioned yesterday at 9480/500 is still giving a hard time for the bulls. Just now a wick to 9480 and down to 9380 but recovering again. Also that trend line seems to have value as well. So clear to say, that both need to break, that line and the 9500/480.

If it happens, would be important to see what happens next. Will it be a fast wick up to 9600ish and then stall to form the bearish wedge?
Or will we see a normal volume buying breakout and then go flag in the 9600/700 zone so that it can eventually break.

註釋

The daily chart might still be the most important to watch here. Think a close above 9700 might already do the trick in favor for the bulls, maybe it has to be 9800+. As you can see, so far, despite all the noise (wicks), Bitcoin is still moving inside of that channel, which is bearish unless we see a clear break on the upside.

On the right, you can see that wedge again, but instead of following the line a bit more (so taking more time to do the steps), we have yet another wick. Which unfortunately makes it harder to say what it means. Most of the times these wicks are signals of strength, but i will show a few examples later where they become fake.

註釋

Now half year ago, if you might remember, during the rally to 10.500, i kept saying several times: "The market is giving the impression as if it can NOT drop", all the drop wick up so guaranteed win if you long. Well, i was quite clear about it, to me that was a FALSE impression and we saw the result eventually. During the green zones it kept going up, during the orange ones the trend was already down.

Now lately we see similar things, but here are 2 differences.

- This time, we have some VERY clear rejection at the 10K zone, which we did not have then. So i would say, that might even be in favor of the bulls, maybe, i have nothing to compare it with.
- I keep hearing from people, some big fundamentals have changed, more clearly than 6 months ago. Which i personally always take with a 1000 kilo of salt ;) when it comes to crypto, but maybe some is for real this time.

My personal bias on this market, is that we will still drop, sooner or later, to like 7K prices and maybe even lower. But that is NOT what the charts are telling. I am neutral at this point, the market clearly doesn't want to drop yet so can't be stubborn bearish here.

Until we see a daily close below 8600 or above 10K/10.500, we can continue this crappy movement. So within that zone, especially above the 9200/300, bulls are in favor. The longer it consolidates against the high, bigger the odds become it will break. That is the only reason actually why i am NOT convinced bearish. It's like a big rule, that almost no manipulation can hide.

I was thinking that as well before the rally to 10.400, why i was even slightly bullish just before that pump. But after that rejection, a clear failure of the breakout, is normally a HUGE sell signal. Which i was slightly bearish again since. But it is almost taking too long now. We have the break of the up trend from past weeks which is clearly in favor of the bears, unless we see a close above 9700/800.

So hopefully, we get an answer very soon, Hopefully we get a real move this time, when we have a daily close above 9700/800 or below 8600 (where i think maybe close below 9200 should already do the trick)

註釋

For the ones who hate this crap, think only focus on that this channel. It worked the last time and i think its the same this time. Think a daily close below 9200 is a signal and above 9600/700. Last time the 4H worked as well, would say a close below 4h should cause more downwards pressure and above 9500 for the bulls. But the wedge is still in play if we go up from here and the 9600/700 is still the key level for me

註釋

And, even if the wedge plays out, big chance it will still stay inside that channel of the daily chart. Based on that daily chart, think the bears are in favor. Below 9500 clearly, think even up to almost 9600. between 9600/700, see it as neutral to tiny bit for the bulls.

註釋

Today's bounce looks different than the previous one. Now it seems it is breaking that trend line from the past days. So we could see it go to the upside of the wedge.

it looked as if it was headed down, daily candle making a decent wick below that channel, but they saved the candle. Think if todays candle closes below 9500, the wedge still has a decent chance of playing out. If it closes above 9550, then chances increase of a break of the big 9600/700 zone.