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Is this a new shakeout or are we going down? (deep analysis)

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Hello friends, here we are analyzing BTCUSD once again. We will be looking at an in depth market analysis. This is not a memecoin analysis or an advice for you to get rich quick. we can only present the facts. Have a look at my previous analysis in January, when everyone was predicting BTC pre-halving to 20k we presented our beliefs and facts when it came to market direction and sentiment which was aligned with the truth and what came to be.

The news and media can parrot a narrative but always look at what they do and not what they say so you can see what is really happening. our analysis is based on historical analysis as well as data. we don't pay attention to sensational news very much (unless its a momentum trade). Mainly most alpha comes from real data and getting in before the news is out by the media.

That being said lets get to the good stuff. . .

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OqEBXpn9/

here we see BTCUSD during the previous cycle. On a macro level we can see many similarities and some differences. During that time we also had a deep retracement when we hit close to all time highs of the previous cycle (~20% retracement).

From a technical perspective, we did not breach all time highs during that cycle when we experienced the retracement. I can think this is indicative of our market being influenced more by FOMO at the current time and more awareness of crypto in general.

I am noticing that many are calling for a doom and gloom for crypto. Ignore... Ignore until we breach the key level of 55k.

Crypto and the US stock market are very correlated. however these days i am noticing that when the stock market goes up crypto is stagnant and when the market is down crypto is going down indicating the overall strength of the US market outpacing crypto (temporarily). I believe the crypto market is taking a breath. after all, when did we go up this much before the halving? never.

The FOMC meeting was positive. We saw the inflation reports coming out, one after another being high inflation. however, the Jerome Powell came on TV and was dovish. Its interesting to see the government pivot like this with their "adjusted economic reports".

Anyways back to the charts.. this is the current cycle and where we are ( I have added my projection as well)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZbXJ8Nk2/

Whats going on with ETFs?

Having ETFs in crypto will eventually create more price stability. with ETFs seeing more inflows overall (Sorry GBTC). I think we are set for a great run ahead. once we break and hold 85k which I think is more significant to ATHs because thats the ATH adjusted for inflation. we can see a very strong buying power. I believe during this cycle we will see more countries joining El Salvador.

Blackrock invested in an ETH product which has been very interesting. Many funds like Blackrock , JPM, and Goldman Sachs have shown interest in ETH. I believe ETH is also undervalued.

I believe this crypto cycle will be one of the most important cycles we will experience. I believe it will overlap with the other cycles such as the US stock market.

I hope you can use this information for your benefit. Happy trading. :)

註釋

The market goes where she wants go. As I said, it is a shakeout. I believe the same thesis. my local top for BTC is set to be 80-90k. pay attention to the structure of each rally. the structure that took us to 74k broke the pattern. when you pay attention closely you, as the structure has been before, you want a breakout and a dip following it, followed by a rally and possibly an extended rally. In my future analysis i will show you guys what I mean by "structure". I hope you went long. :D