Like EVERYTHING in life, markets also moves in cycles and Bitcoin is no exception. From the Big bang theory to the global warming, it's all about cycles. Always. That's why Elliott wave theory, as imprecise as it can be, is one of the best indicator to help us know where we could be in a market cycle. So, where the f**k are we in this crypto cycle now and where is the end ?
Well according to Ralph Nelson Elliott (the creator of this theory), a main trend (impulsive wave) is composed of 5 waves. 3 of those waves are impulsive and 2 are correction waves. To simplify, the market trend go thru 3 major fall or climb before we see an Elliott wave correction pattern (3 waves correction who goes against the trend) and then after this correction wave the market continue the main trend or have a real reversal and break the main trend and start a new cycle.
If you take a look at the chart, you will see that Bitcoin might have start a new main trend (bearish one) around 20k. The good news is we are currently in the last wave of this new cycle (new impulsive wave). So when this wave will be over (will the price be at 5k, 4k, 3k ? I have no idea), BTC should A) : Have at least a big pump with a 3 waves correction pattern but won't be able to break ATH and will then continue it's main trend with a new impulsive wave to the downside or B) : Be over with this bear market and break the downside main trend and will start a new cycle to the upside and break ATH.
So Elliott wave theory tell us we have 2 options for the crypto market right now... Let's see what the market will choose.
However, If the last wave is fully completed, this mean the market should have lost around 90% of it's valuation. The worst two Bitcoin fall were about 90% drop before the real reversal and the beginning of a new cycle...
Stay tuned for more updates,
Fred
交易進行
⋅
So we finally had our double bottom ! Let's see what's next for Bitcoin.
fine for me. but for your last set of waves: I would definetly say the 2nd "corrective" wave should be the second top of the double top fractal (2nd fractal).
FrederickDupont
⋅
@BarrenWaffe, Yeah I know, I thought about it... I put it there just because it looks better to me, but you're probably right.
JayVirtualWorld
⋅
another example... I have 140 miners sitting in boxes - unopen - never plugged in.... if market goes below 7k, i will unplug the rest of my miners and go on holiday.
JayVirtualWorld
⋅
Do you know at 7k, miners are at par, under 6k they lose money and start switching off miners slowly and under 5k they will switch off entire farms even in Iceland.
Do you know the effect of this? no verification of transactions, huge delays from minutes to hours and than days.... ultimately a complete CRYPTO crash....
No gain to bulls or bears and forget that cryptos will ever get on its feet again :)
FrederickDupont
⋅
@Zigh72, Yes I know about that... Small farms will maybe shut, but big farms like Bitmain can probably take months or years of lost and they will probably short BTC to hedge themselves if that happen. Also if small farms shut, it will be easier to mine bitcoin again and even with lower prices, the difficulty will drop, small players will be out and big players will eventually make big profit again by mining Bitcoin.