Bitcoin and The Failed IH&S, Higher Low or New Low, Part 2

已更新

So the previous analysis has been quite perfect so far. As the general waves lately as well, it's just so great we have our volatility back again. Anyway, the big ABC correction i mentioned a while back is still in play which means this whole move could be the start of another impulse wave down. For that to happen we have to stay below the 4100/4050, simple as that. In my previous analysis i quickly posted this chart a few minutes before that last squeeze up to 4040 because i knew i would probably be too late with writing this analysis before that last move up would happen. We have found immediate rejection already as well, suggesting that wedge on the right is a valid on. It's not a wedge i normally like to be honest, but so far working out. For now the 3940ish level is a support and if this keeps holding as support there might be a chance i might have it wrong with this impulse wave down. Doesn't mean i am completely off with everything, just needs a new game plan.

I have been saying that we should see a move down again towards the lows to test it once again. I gave a target 2 days ago of around 3700/3750 which we have reached perfectly already. I also kept saying, that the 3500/3600 won't be an easy level to break since it is a solid support zone so far. I think a higher low around 3600 is very important because i don't think a retest of 3500 will hold. I also mentioned there is a chance the 3500 zone might become the new 6K level as well. There are just a lot of bears in the market and usually when that is the case, we need to shake them out and make them bulls again. But at the moment, the market is still in crash and panic mode, even though the past week or 2 things have calmed down a bit, it doesn't mean it's over already. Think the market is still too shaky, one very big sign is the fact that we never reached that 4600 level a week ago, which was a very big sign for me to be looking down again. All i am trying to say here is, do not get caught up in the emotions of the market or whatever other analysts (or me) are saying, just make sure you look at the facts and be objective.

I also posted a possible inverse H&S in the previous analysis, but i also said that they have been failing almost every time the last months. With the current breakout and the quick drop to the neckline, suggests the wedge is more likely than this inverse H&S. A break of 3940/20 would confirm the H&S is off the table. On the left we can see the yellow circles showing both of the Bart moves that happened after a double bottom was formed. I kept saying yesterday when we were hanging around the 3800, that IMO another drop would bee too soon and i rather see some sideways action or a move towards the 3950.

To give you a small view of how i trade, my game plan was bearish during the weekend and the targets around the 3700. When trading this AND it becomes a succes, you should put greed on the side and stick to the plan. Now what i am trying to say here is the following, even though i expected a move up, i simply just sit on the sidelines for that to see how things go first before entering again. Since we had a Bart move up, a much stronger rally up than i though would happen yesterday, means i simply wait a bit longer before taking another step. Now i would have the odds on my side again if i would be trading this. Also having a break of a half day, gives me the chance to clear my mind as well and start the day objective again. Over trading is one of the biggest mistakes a trader can make. Try to have a plan, make your trades inside that plan if things work out. If they don't, step aside and wait for a new opportunity. As soon as things become (a) personal (fight), that is when traders start to blow up their accounts.

For the short term, if we continue to drop i see the 3850ish as a second support after the 3920/40. If that one breaks, the chances will increase a lot for a move towards the 3600. A break of 4100ish, will make me change my short term view.

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Previous analysis:

Bitcoin and The Failed IH&S, Higher Low or New Low

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That last update from the previous analysis i mentioned

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Now it should stay below the 3980ish

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Seeing some support now, like it doesn't want to drop. I think we might see a small move up first, towards the 3950ish and drop again. If we get above the 4000ish, that bearish wedge is probably off the table

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For the ones who have missed this, where i give my view on the Bart move of a view days ago.

Exclusive Update, Bitcoin And Solving The Bart Move Puzzle

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That attempt to move up a bit, was probably because of the funding on Bitmex, however the % was quite low.

At the moment it has reached the target of that blue line on the right. this level, the 3850ish, is a support zone. So i expect if that breaks, we could continue down again. Bulls have a clear first level now, that is around 3920/3940.

Alts are getting weaker again as well, but still above yesterday's low. I think if those lows breaks, we could see some dumping happening there as well.

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The 3850 support is still holding and looks like we have a small triangle now which can take the price towards the 3950ish. Anything below the 3950 is still very bearish IMO. Only a break of 4050ish can break this impulse wave down. So above 3950 makes things a bit more neutral, above 4050/4100 slightly bullish.

Alts are also still holding, no panic or extra weakness there. So the bulls still seem to be holding it here. I had expected a bit more bearish movement, at least a bit more volume and volatility. The bulls are trying to turn it up here, but there is no conviction at all at the moment. Don't think any bear is scared here :).

If the bulls do not step up soon, this possible triangle can turn into a bearish wedge.

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So it became a wedge since the bulls were not able to get it past the 3920 after several attempts even. A bit of volume increase but still above the 3850. Volume has not been that high throughout the day. So if we would drop more and break the 3850 and go towards the 3800 with increasing volume, it will probably break as well. A break of this level will probably bring us back towards the 3600 support zone.
If we don't get a bounce now above 3900, it will probably make another drop. First key level for the bulls is the 3920.

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it just made a quick bounce from the 3850 again, but from the looks of it it will break. If we see some more high volume dumping and a straight line towards the 3800, i think that one will break as well. If that happens, as mentioned above, i think the doors are open to the 36xx levels. A quick move above 3920ish will probably safe the bulls. Anything below that level is bearish

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So the 3800ish support did hold eventually and from the looks of it, we have a small inverse H&S in the making here. Already had the pullback as well. Target is around 3920, wich was a heavy resistance yesterday. But if that trend line breaks, it might just drop because than it turns into a bearish wedge.

The H&S does look very solid in size and everything else

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Wow, this is very weak, that it can not even complete a small inverse H&S like this. Trend line broke making it a bearish wedge with a target around today's low. A Double bottom around 3780/3800 could still save the bulls here, but my first guess is, that level will break. So we will probably go test the 3600/3700 zone

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Bulls are still trying but so far not enough buyer power. It is good they are still holding these support so it means they still have a chance. I think it's safe to say, a break of 3800/3780 will make us drop in the 36xx level. On the upside, i think the 3920ish might trigger a (small) short squeeze which could bring it up towards the 4050 zone again.

The 4050/4100 is still a key level IMO for the bulls. If they can break that, my short term bearish view will change.

For the rest it will just be a lot of noise in the mean time. 3850 will is a small level as well on the short time frame

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The target of that wedge i showed yesterday has just been reached to the point even. There is still a small chance for support at the current level. That trend line might work as well. I do not give it a lot of chance to succeed, but best to be aware of it.

On the left we can see the daily chart, if the current candle starts to drop below the 3700 and close below it, it won't be a big sell signal but it's clearly bad news of course.

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Still no convincing sell volume on the daily if we close around the 3700, chances are higher that we see follow through on the next candle.
That trend line i talked about did not hold as expected and at the moment we are moving inside of a small bear flag. Seems the upside of it has been set around 3750 now. So a break of 3680ish could bring us down towards the 3550/3600.

I have drawn another trend line, which we can see in that channel. Usually the chances are very low that we see a drop below it, but if it happens, it is usually a very fast drop. With this there are also 2 scenario's,

If we see a quick drop below it and a jump up again as well, that the (temp) low is very likely to have been set. If we don't see a jump up, we will very likely continue down and break the 3500. If we do not break this channel, we could move up as the blue line on the left. I think the 3800ish is an important level for now.

I will write a new analysis later today