alexyeoh
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Subwave 5 about to start on Wave C

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
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So it looks like we're about to start mini-subwave 5 of subwave C of Wave 2. After Wave 2 is Wave 3 going to the moon and beyond.

But at the same time, we have to be mindful of our own biases. We have to chart the bullish and bearish waves to test whether we are right or not.

The bearish path is that we had finished a wave 4 up that started at $6504 and ended at $8400 and are now on our way down on a wave 5.

It's too early tell for sure whether we are on a wave 2 or a wave 5, but I think the 4H/1D RSI and MACD support that we are on a wave 2. The 1 HR 0.92% RSI shows that we are nearing the oversold region which implies that by the time we reach the end of the wave we should be very oversold and then turn around for wave 3 to start. I think that if we are really on a wave 5, the 1HR RSI would not be near oversold until we were nearer to the $6500 region.

There are 4 types buying BTC: the general populace, the bots, the traders and the whales. Forget trying to predict the whales. The general populace are bullish right now so that leaves the bots and the traders. Both the bots and traders are going to obey the fib retracement levels. Subwave A ended at PRECISELY the 0.236 fib level (if wave 1 started at $6504) which confirms that the bots and traders are in charge right now since bots and traders follow fib retracement levels and implies that the ending point of wave 2 will also be determined by bots and traders and will also be a fib level.

Therefore we can look to the behavior of the price at key fib levels. The next one is $7700, and is just above the long-term trend line so bouncing off this will be a very bullish sign. I have a day job so I can't be watching the price to the minute, so for people like me, I recommend buying using stop orders. As the price keeps going down, readjust your stop orders downward. This doesn't give you the absolute best price, but it stops you getting wrecked if we are on a wave 5 instead of a wave 2.

If we are on a wave 5, that implies that the price will go down to at least $6500, which is the starting point of wave 4. After which we should expect an ABC going up. And that's really how you tell the difference: where we turn around.

I might add that in times like this, mapping the subwaves using Elliott wave rules helps you set in the right stop order points. You know that wave 4 won't retrace back into wave 1, so putting in a stop order at wave 1 is very safe. Then as you map the mini-subwaves, you can also continue to lower that stop order point. There is a third scenario for btc that is very very bullish . If the price goes above $8030, which is the end of mini-subwave 1 (of wave C), then we can say that wave 2 ended at $7907 which is the most bullish sign.

(note this is a repost: I had not noticed earlier that I didn't shift my subwave 1 and subwave 2 points properly, so now that is corrected)
I might want to add that what I've labelled as subwave 4 could be subwave 2. As the price gets lower, adjust your stop orders lower too.
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