Analysis of BTC/USD price movement

1. Trend Analysis (Based on Recent Chart)
• Current Price Range: Bitcoin is currently trading around $97,000–$98,000.
• Long-term Trend: The chart suggests an upward channel with BTC respecting higher highs and higher lows.
• Short-term Trend: BTC has seen a strong breakout from consolidation over the past few weeks, indicating bullish momentum.
• Resistance Levels:
o Psychological Resistance: $100,000
o Next Key Resistances: $105,000, $110,000
• Support Levels:
o Short-term Support: $92,000, $88,000
o Key Long-term Support: $85,000, $74,000

2. Indicators Analysis
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
• Currently above 70, indicating overbought conditions.
• BTC could see a short-term correction before continuing its upward trend.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
• The MACD line is above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum.
• However, if it starts to converge, a pullback could be expected.
Momentum Indicators (Histogram, SQZMOM)
• Green histogram bars increasing, showing strong buying pressure.
• If momentum weakens, we may see a temporary retracement.


3. Key Scenarios for the Next 5 Weeks
Bullish Case (80% Probability)
📈 Price Target: $110,000 - $120,000
• BTC remains above $92,000-$95,000 support.
• Breakout above $100K leads to strong FOMO buying.
• Institutional adoption and ETF inflows drive BTC higher.
Bearish Case (20% Probability)
📉 Price Target: $85,000 - $74,000
• BTC fails to hold above 92K, leading to a deeper pullback.
• MACD bearish crossover signals short-term downtrend.
• Possible correction toward $85K or even $74K, where strong support lies.


4. Projection for the Next 5 Weeks
• Week 1-2: BTC likely consolidates between $92,000 - $100,000.
• Week 3-4: A breakout above $100K could push BTC to $110K - $115K.
• Week 5: If momentum holds, BTC may challenge $120K before a pullback.

5. Conclusion & Trading Strategy
✅ If Bullish:
• Buy on dips near 92K-$95K.
• Take profits around $110K-$115K.
❌ If Bearish:
• Wait for RSI to reset below 50.
• Look for support around $85K-$74K before re-entering.
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Final Prediction:
BTC likely crosses $100K in the next 5 weeks, with a potential rally toward $110K-$120K. However, expect short-term pullbacks as traders take profits.